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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Mainz

U T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Augsburg

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,45 xG 1,48

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 12

6 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · Augsburg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	11	7	1	+38	-0.7	40
2	Union Berlin	19	12	3	4	+10	+2.7	39
3	Dortmund	19	12	1	6	+12	+2.1	37
4	RB Leipzig	19	10	6	3	+15	+1.9	36
5	Ein Frankfurt	19	10	5	4	+14	-2.0	35
6	Freiburg	19	10	4	5	+0	-1.7	34
7	Wolfsburg	20	8	6	6	+12	+5.5	30
8	Werder Bremen	19	8	3	8	-6	-2.8	27
9	M'gladbach	19	7	5	7	+5	-1.6	26
10	Leverkusen	19	7	3	9	-1	+2.6	24
11	FC Koln	19	5	8	6	-2	+0.9	23
12	Mainz	19	6	5	8	-4	-0.0	23
13	Augsburg	19	6	3	10	-9	-0.5	21
14	Hoffenheim	19	5	4	10	-8	-2.3	19
15	Bochum	19	6	1	12	-22	+1.0	19
16	Stuttgart	19	3	7	9	-12	+0.8	16
17	Hertha	19	3	5	11	-15	-5.4	14
18	Schalke 04	20	2	6	12	-27	-0.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+15	-0.6	23
2	Union Berlin	9	7	2	0	+11	+1.7	23
3	Dortmund	9	7	1	1	+15	+2.7	22
4	Freiburg	9	6	2	1	+9	+1.8	20
5	Bayern Munich	9	5	4	0	+20	+1.5	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	1	3	+11	+0.6	19
7	M'gladbach	10	6	1	3	+9	-0.9	19
8	Bochum	9	5	1	3	+0	+2.4	16
9	Wolfsburg	9	4	3	2	+9	+4.1	15
10	FC Koln	9	4	3	2	+8	+2.4	15
11	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+6	+1.8	14
12	Werder Bremen	10	4	1	5	+1	+1.0	13
13	Stuttgart	10	3	3	4	-1	+1.3	12
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.4	11
15	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	+0.8	11
16	Mainz	9	2	4	3	+1	+0.2	10
17	Hertha	10	2	4	4	-6	-3.5	10
18	Schalke 04	11	2	3	6	-15	-1.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	6	3	1	+18	-2.2	21
2	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	4	1	+3	-2.6	16
3	Union Berlin	10	5	1	4	-1	+1.1	16
4	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.4	15
5	Dortmund	10	5	0	5	-3	-0.6	15
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	-7	-3.8	14
7	Freiburg	10	4	2	4	-9	-3.5	14
8	RB Leipzig	10	3	4	3	+0	+2.5	13
9	Mainz	10	4	1	5	-5	-0.2	13
10	Augsburg	9	3	1	5	-3	-1.3	10
11	Leverkusen	9	3	1	5	-7	+0.8	10
12	Hoffenheim	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.7	8
13	FC Koln	10	1	5	4	-10	-1.5	8
14	M'gladbach	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.7	7
15	Hertha	9	1	1	7	-9	-1.9	4
16	Stuttgart	9	0	4	5	-11	-0.5	4
17	Schalke 04	9	0	3	6	-12	+0.6	3
18	Bochum	10	1	0	9	-22	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.