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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Swansea

T S S S U

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

38%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,45 xG 0,80

68% Possession 32%

9 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

3 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Swansea 13. · Millwall 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	45	31	4	10	+50	+39.5	97
2	Ipswich	45	27	12	6	+33	+24.7	93
3	Leeds	43	25	9	9	+37	+37.5	84
4	Southampton	43	23	9	11	+20	+30.2	78
5	Norwich	43	21	10	12	+18	+1.3	73
6	West Brom	43	20	12	11	+23	+6.4	72
7	Hull	45	19	13	13	+9	+8.0	70
8	Middlesbrough	45	19	9	17	+7	+11.2	66
9	Coventry	45	17	13	15	+12	+6.9	64
10	Preston	45	18	9	18	-8	-16.7	63
11	Bristol City	45	17	11	17	+6	+0.2	62
12	Cardiff	45	19	5	21	-14	-24.8	62
13	Swansea	45	15	12	18	-5	-7.3	57
14	Watford	45	13	17	15	+2	-2.4	56
15	Sunderland	45	16	8	21	+0	+8.3	56
16	Millwall	45	15	11	19	-11	-10.5	56
17	QPR	45	14	11	20	-12	-4.5	53
18	Stoke	45	14	11	20	-15	-3.0	53
19	Blackburn	45	13	11	21	-16	-7.0	50
20	Sheffield Weds	45	14	8	23	-26	-7.6	50
21	Plymouth	45	12	12	21	-12	-21.7	48
22	Birmingham	45	12	11	22	-16	-8.6	47
23	Huddersfield	45	9	18	18	-27	-13.0	45
24	Rotherham	45	4	12	29	-55	-47.1	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	17	1	4	+31	+19.7	52
2	Ipswich	22	15	6	1	+25	+23.3	51
3	Leeds	21	15	5	1	+29	+25.4	50
4	Norwich	22	15	4	3	+22	+11.1	49
5	West Brom	21	14	4	3	+20	+11.9	46
6	Southampton	22	14	3	5	+24	+23.2	45
7	Bristol City	23	11	4	8	+10	+3.6	37
8	Preston	23	11	4	8	-1	-5.7	37
9	Coventry	22	9	8	5	+10	+6.1	35
10	Hull	23	8	9	6	+8	+7.7	33
11	Birmingham	22	9	6	7	+5	+1.2	33
12	Cardiff	23	10	3	10	-5	-11.4	33
13	Plymouth	22	9	5	8	+5	-10.1	32
14	Sunderland	22	10	2	10	+2	+6.6	32
15	Millwall	23	9	5	9	-7	-2.3	32
16	Middlesbrough	22	9	4	9	+2	+10.3	31
17	Sheffield Weds	23	8	7	8	+0	+3.5	31
18	Swansea	22	8	5	9	-1	+2.7	29
19	Watford	23	6	9	8	+4	+6.3	27
20	QPR	23	7	6	10	-4	+1.0	27
21	Stoke	22	7	6	9	-7	+2.0	27
22	Huddersfield	23	6	8	9	-10	-4.2	26
23	Blackburn	23	6	7	10	-7	+3.2	25
24	Rotherham	22	4	8	10	-7	-13.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	23	14	3	6	+19	+19.8	45
2	Ipswich	23	12	6	5	+8	+1.4	42
3	Hull	22	11	4	7	+1	+0.3	37
4	Middlesbrough	23	10	5	8	+5	+0.9	35
5	Leeds	22	10	4	8	+8	+12.1	34
6	Southampton	21	9	6	6	-4	+7.0	33
7	Coventry	23	8	5	10	+2	+0.8	29
8	Watford	22	7	8	7	-2	-8.8	29
9	Cardiff	22	9	2	11	-9	-13.4	29
10	Swansea	23	7	7	9	-4	-10.0	28
11	West Brom	22	6	8	8	+3	-5.5	26
12	Preston	22	7	5	10	-7	-11.0	26
13	Stoke	23	7	5	11	-8	-5.0	26
14	QPR	22	7	5	10	-8	-5.5	26
15	Bristol City	22	6	7	9	-4	-3.4	25
16	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-9	-10.2	25
17	Sunderland	23	6	6	11	-2	+1.7	24
18	Norwich	21	6	6	9	-4	-9.8	24
19	Millwall	22	6	6	10	-4	-8.2	24
20	Huddersfield	22	3	10	9	-17	-8.8	19
21	Sheffield Weds	22	6	1	15	-26	-11.1	19
22	Plymouth	23	3	7	13	-17	-11.6	16
23	Birmingham	23	3	5	15	-21	-9.7	14
24	Rotherham	23	0	4	19	-48	-34.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.