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Pro League

Referee: N Laforge

Cercle Brugge

S U T T U

4–1

Full-time

Genk

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cercle Brugge Genk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 53%

58%

48%

Points per game

1,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

50%

52%

Both score Ø 51%

54%

48%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,53 xG 2,15

37% Possession 63%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cercle Brugge 4. · Genk 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	26	18	3	5	+29	+28.8	57
2	Club Brugge	26	17	5	4	+45	+36.4	56
3	Anderlecht	26	16	6	4	+24	+13.7	54
4	Cercle Brugge	26	15	5	6	+19	+7.4	50
5	Gent	26	14	7	5	+25	+17.5	49
6	Genk	25	12	8	5	+16	+25.9	44
7	Mechelen	27	12	6	9	+5	+2.4	42
8	Antwerp	26	11	7	8	+18	+15.2	40
9	Charleroi	29	8	8	13	-17	-12.1	32
10	St Truiden	27	7	9	11	-16	-13.3	30
11	Standard	26	5	12	9	-9	-10.6	27
12	RWD Molenbeek	29	6	7	16	-34	-33.1	25
13	Westerlo	27	5	9	13	-13	-11.9	24
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	26	5	8	13	-16	-10.3	23
15	Kortrijk	28	5	5	18	-36	-24.4	20
16	Eupen	28	4	3	21	-40	-31.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Anderlecht	13	11	1	1	+18	+10.5	34
2	Club Brugge	13	10	3	0	+30	+20.0	33
3	St. Gilloise	13	9	2	2	+17	+14.8	29
4	Gent	13	8	4	1	+18	+12.0	28
5	Cercle Brugge	13	8	3	2	+16	+7.2	27
6	Genk	13	7	4	2	+11	+17.8	25
7	Mechelen	14	7	4	3	+10	+7.7	25
8	Antwerp	12	6	3	3	+17	+13.4	21
9	St Truiden	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
10	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	13	5	3	5	+3	-3.5	18
11	Standard	13	4	5	4	+3	+2.0	17
12	Charleroi	14	4	5	5	-5	+1.0	17
13	Westerlo	14	4	4	6	-4	-3.7	16
14	RWD Molenbeek	15	4	4	7	-13	-13.5	16
15	Eupen	14	3	2	9	-14	-11.9	11
16	Kortrijk	14	2	3	9	-14	-8.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	13	9	1	3	+12	+14.0	28
2	Club Brugge	13	7	2	4	+15	+16.3	23
3	Cercle Brugge	13	7	2	4	+3	+0.2	23
4	Gent	13	6	3	4	+7	+5.5	21
5	Anderlecht	13	5	5	3	+6	+3.2	20
6	Genk	12	5	4	3	+5	+8.1	19
7	Antwerp	14	5	4	5	+1	+1.8	19
8	Mechelen	13	5	2	6	-5	-5.3	17
9	Charleroi	15	4	3	8	-12	-13.0	15
10	St Truiden	14	2	5	7	-13	-13.3	11
11	Kortrijk	14	3	2	9	-22	-16.0	11
12	Standard	13	1	7	5	-12	-12.6	10
13	RWD Molenbeek	14	2	3	9	-21	-19.6	9
14	Westerlo	13	1	5	7	-9	-8.1	8
15	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	13	0	5	8	-19	-6.8	5
16	Eupen	14	1	1	12	-26	-19.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.