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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Oxford

T T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 33%

24%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

38%

59%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,49 xG 1,33

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Oxford 20. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	38	23	11	4	+51	+46.0	80
2	Burnley	37	20	15	2	+39	+13.3	75
3	Sheffield United	34	22	6	6	+22	+12.9	72
4	Sunderland	35	19	11	5	+22	+14.0	68
5	West Brom	37	13	17	7	+14	+7.3	56
6	Bristol City	36	14	14	8	+9	+6.2	56
7	Coventry	36	16	7	13	+4	+17.5	55
8	Middlesbrough	37	15	8	14	+9	+12.9	53
9	Blackburn	37	15	7	15	+3	-1.7	52
10	Watford	37	15	7	15	-3	-7.9	52
11	Millwall	38	13	12	13	-2	+3.1	51
12	Sheffield Weds	37	14	9	14	-5	-1.0	51
13	Norwich	38	12	13	13	+6	+11.2	49
14	QPR	38	11	12	15	-6	-5.8	45
15	Preston	37	9	17	11	-6	-2.4	44
16	Swansea	37	12	8	17	-9	-1.4	44
17	Portsmouth	37	11	9	17	-14	-11.2	42
18	Hull	37	10	10	17	-8	-4.5	40
19	Stoke	38	9	12	17	-14	-17.4	39
20	Oxford	37	9	12	16	-17	-21.7	39
21	Cardiff	37	8	12	17	-21	-16.0	36
22	Derby	37	9	8	20	-12	-8.1	35
23	Luton	37	9	7	21	-26	-9.5	34
24	Plymouth	37	7	12	18	-36	-35.8	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	19	15	3	1	+38	+28.7	48
2	Burnley	19	10	9	0	+22	+8.9	39
3	Sunderland	18	11	6	1	+16	+12.6	39
4	Sheffield United	17	12	2	3	+12	+12.7	38
5	Bristol City	18	10	6	2	+14	+8.5	36
6	Watford	19	11	2	6	+5	-0.8	35
7	West Brom	18	9	7	2	+13	+8.3	34
8	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	+10	+5.8	33
9	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
10	Portsmouth	19	9	5	5	+10	+3.3	32
11	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+7	+7.1	32
12	Norwich	19	8	7	4	+17	+12.7	31
13	Oxford	18	8	5	5	+1	-4.3	29
14	Preston	18	6	10	2	+5	+5.1	28
15	Millwall	19	8	4	7	+3	+6.3	28
16	Derby	19	8	3	8	+6	+1.7	27
17	QPR	19	7	6	6	+3	+3.4	27
18	Swansea	18	7	5	6	+6	+8.5	26
19	Stoke	19	6	8	5	+2	-4.4	26
20	Luton	18	7	5	6	+1	+5.3	26
21	Plymouth	18	6	7	5	-1	-6.7	25
22	Cardiff	19	7	3	9	-2	-2.2	24
23	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	+0	+3.6	22
24	Hull	19	4	7	8	-3	+4.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+17	+4.4	36
2	Sheffield United	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.2	34
3	Leeds	19	8	8	3	+13	+17.3	32
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Sheffield Weds	19	9	2	8	-5	-4.6	29
6	Millwall	19	5	8	6	-5	-3.2	23
7	West Brom	19	4	10	5	+1	-1.1	22
8	Coventry	18	6	4	8	-5	+7.4	22
9	Middlesbrough	18	6	3	9	+2	+5.8	21
10	Hull	18	6	3	9	-5	-9.0	21
11	Bristol City	18	4	8	6	-5	-2.3	20
12	Blackburn	19	5	4	10	-7	-7.5	19
13	QPR	19	4	6	9	-9	-9.2	18
14	Norwich	19	4	6	9	-11	-1.5	18
15	Swansea	19	5	3	11	-15	-9.9	18
16	Watford	18	4	5	9	-8	-7.1	17
17	Preston	19	3	7	9	-11	-7.5	16
18	Stoke	19	3	4	12	-16	-13.0	13
19	Cardiff	18	1	9	8	-19	-13.9	12
20	Oxford	19	1	7	11	-18	-17.4	10
21	Portsmouth	18	2	4	12	-24	-14.5	10
22	Derby	18	1	5	12	-18	-9.7	8
23	Luton	19	2	2	15	-27	-14.8	8
24	Plymouth	19	1	5	13	-35	-29.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.