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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Aston Villa

T T T S S

1–2

Full-time

Man City

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 54%

38%

69%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

62%

46%

Both score Ø 39%

54%

23%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,6

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 11

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 13. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	14	10	3	1	+27	33
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	29
3	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+28	28
4	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+8	24
5	Arsenal	13	7	2	4	-2	23
6	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+0	21
7	Brighton	14	4	7	3	-2	19
8	Leicester	14	5	4	5	-3	19
9	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	-6	19
10	Man United	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+0	16
12	Crystal Palace	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	Aston Villa	13	5	1	7	-3	16
14	Everton	13	4	3	6	-4	15
15	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-7	15
16	Leeds	14	3	6	5	-7	15
17	Watford	14	4	1	9	-7	13
18	Burnley	13	1	7	5	-6	10
19	Norwich	14	2	4	8	-20	10
20	Newcastle	14	0	7	7	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
2	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
4	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	-2	12
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
8	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
11	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Wolves	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Leeds	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Watford	7	2	1	4	-5	7
18	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Newcastle	7	0	4	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+0	10
8	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-14	5
19	Burnley	7	0	4	3	-6	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.