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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

T S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Brentford

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

7 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 10. · Brentford 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	0	1	+9	6
2	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Man United	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Watford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-8	0
20	Arsenal	3	0	0	3	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-5	0
20	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.