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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Aston Villa

T T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

64%

71%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

71%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 25

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 13. · Leicester 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	2	2	+23	35
2	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+32	34
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+26	33
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Tottenham	14	8	1	5	-1	25
6	Man United	15	7	3	5	+1	24
7	Arsenal	14	7	2	5	-3	23
8	Wolves	15	6	3	6	-1	21
9	Brighton	15	4	8	3	-2	20
10	Leicester	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Brentford	15	4	5	6	-2	17
12	Crystal Palace	15	3	7	5	-2	16
13	Aston Villa	14	5	1	8	-4	16
14	Leeds	15	3	7	5	-7	16
15	Southampton	15	3	7	5	-7	16
16	Everton	14	4	3	7	-7	15
17	Watford	15	4	1	10	-9	13
18	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-7	10
19	Newcastle	15	1	7	7	-13	10
20	Norwich	15	2	4	9	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+3	18
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
3	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
9	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
10	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+2	10
11	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Leeds	8	2	4	2	-2	10
14	Wolves	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Newcastle	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
20	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+19	19
2	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Man City	8	6	1	1	+9	19
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
8	Brentford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-9	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Crystal Palace	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.