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Championship

Referee: Jacob Miles

Millwall

S U T U T

1–0

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 25%

44%

Points per game

1,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,45 xG 0,70

55% Possession 45%

24 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 9. · Sheffield Weds 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	12	4	1	+30	+17.5	40
2	Stoke	17	9	3	5	+13	-0.0	30
3	Middlesbrough	16	8	5	3	+4	+2.7	29
4	Ipswich	16	7	6	3	+12	+15.1	27
5	Preston	17	7	6	4	+5	-0.8	27
6	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+7	+1.5	26
7	Derby	17	7	5	5	+1	-6.0	26
8	Hull	17	7	4	6	-1	-11.5	25
9	Millwall	16	7	4	5	-5	+1.4	25
10	Birmingham	16	7	3	6	+6	+11.7	24
11	Watford	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.0	24
12	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+0	-3.4	24
13	Southampton	16	6	5	5	+4	+9.1	23
14	Charlton	17	6	5	6	-3	-6.6	23
15	Wrexham	16	5	7	4	+1	-5.6	22
16	QPR	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.9	22
17	West Brom	16	6	3	7	-3	-0.5	21
18	Blackburn	15	6	1	8	-4	+4.2	19
19	Portsmouth	16	4	5	7	-6	-4.5	17
20	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-8	-7.6	17
21	Oxford	17	3	6	8	-6	-4.8	15
22	Sheffield United	16	4	1	11	-12	+1.6	13
23	Norwich	17	2	4	11	-12	-7.6	10
24	Sheffield Weds	16	1	5	10	-20	-11.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	6	2	0	+16	+7.2	20
2	Watford	9	5	3	1	+6	+4.4	18
3	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+12	+11.7	17
4	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+3	-0.6	17
6	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
7	Stoke	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.9	16
8	Ipswich	9	4	4	1	+6	+12.1	16
9	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
10	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
11	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.9	13
12	Millwall	8	4	1	3	-2	+1.8	13
13	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
14	Wrexham	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.6	12
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
16	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+3	+7.0	11
17	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
18	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
19	Swansea	9	2	3	4	-5	-2.8	9
20	Oxford	8	1	4	3	-4	+0.6	7
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	+0.8	4
22	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-18	-8.8	2
24	Norwich	8	0	1	7	-8	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	6	2	1	+14	+10.3	20
2	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
3	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.9	14
4	Derby	8	4	2	2	+2	-4.9	14
5	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
6	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.1	12
7	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
8	Millwall	8	3	3	2	-3	-0.4	12
9	Ipswich	7	3	2	2	+6	+3.0	11
10	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	-6.3	11
11	QPR	8	3	2	3	-4	-3.0	11
12	Preston	8	2	4	2	+1	-0.6	10
13	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.2	10
14	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-6.9	9
15	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.8	9
16	Sheffield United	9	3	0	6	-5	+0.2	9
17	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
18	Hull	8	2	2	4	-2	-7.7	8
19	Oxford	9	2	2	5	-2	-5.3	8
20	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.7	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	1	5	-6	+0.0	7
22	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-2	-3.1	6
23	Watford	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
24	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-5	-5.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.