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League Cup

Referee: A Kitchen

Bolton

T T T T S

1–4

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 11

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
4	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
32	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.