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Premier League
Referee: A Madley
3–1
Full-time
Aston Villa
U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%
17 Shots 13
9 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Crystal Palace 15. · Aston Villa 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Tottenham 3 2 1 0 +4 7
2 Man City 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Arsenal 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Brentford 2 1 1 0 +4 4
5 Newcastle 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Leeds 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Chelsea 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Brighton 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Aston Villa 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Nott'm Forest 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Bournemouth 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Liverpool 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Fulham 2 0 2 0 +0 2
14 Leicester 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Crystal Palace 2 0 1 1 -2 1
16 Wolves 3 0 1 2 -2 1
17 Southampton 2 0 1 1 -3 1
18 Everton 2 0 0 2 -2 0
19 West Ham 2 0 0 2 -3 0
20 Man United 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Crystal Palace Aston Villa
5′
O. Watkins 0–1
L. Bailey
1–1 W. Zaha
O. Édouard
7′
Jeffrey Schlupp ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
27′
36′
🟨 John McGinn
Wilfried Zaha 🟨
39′
Half-time 1–1
Marc Guéhi ℹ️
VAR: Penalty awarded
56′
2–1 W. Zaha
58′
66′
🔁 D. Ings
↦ L. Bailey
J. Mateta 🔁
↦ O. Édouard
70′
M. Olise 🔁
↦ J. Ayew
70′
3–1 J. Mateta
T. Mitchell
71′
73′
🔁 Douglas Luiz
↦ J. McGinn
73′
🔁 Philippe Coutinho
↦ E. Buendía
Jeffrey Schlupp 🟨
75′
L. Milivojević 🔁
↦ W. Zaha
82′
W. Hughes 🔁
↦ J. Schlupp
82′
C. Richards 🔁
↦ E. Eze
91′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

4-3-3
13 Guaita G
2 J. Ward D
16 J. Andersen D
6 M. Guéhi D
3 T. Mitchell D
15 J. Schlupp M
10 E. Eze M
28 C. Doucouré M
9 J. Ayew F
11 W. Zaha F
22 O. Édouard F
Bench (9)
14 J. Mateta
7 M. Olise
4 L. Milivojević
19 W. Hughes
26 C. Richards
21 S. Johnstone
17 N. Clyne
23 M. Ebiowei
41 J. Whitworth

Coach: P. Vieira

Aston Villa

4-3-3
1 E. Martínez G
27 L. Digne D
5 T. Mings D
4 E. Konsa D
2 M. Cash D
7 J. McGinn M
10 E. Buendía F
44 B. Kamara M
41 J. Ramsey M
11 O. Watkins F
31 L. Bailey F
Bench (9)
9 D. Ings
6 Douglas Luiz
23 Philippe Coutinho
19 M. Nakamba
17 L. Augustinsson
18 A. Young
16 C. Chambers
25 R. Olsen
35 C. Archer

Coach: S. Gerrard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,52
U
3,20
B
3,00
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,19
U2,5
1,69
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Madley · 170 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.