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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

S S S S U

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,7

2,2

Scored

4,0

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 56%

76%

35%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

59%

57%

Both score Ø 45%

38%

51%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,6

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

72% Possession 28%

24 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

13 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Aston Villa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	37	28	6	3	+72	90
2	Liverpool	37	27	8	2	+66	89
3	Chelsea	37	20	11	6	+42	71
4	Tottenham	37	21	5	11	+24	68
5	Arsenal	37	21	3	13	+9	66
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	37	16	8	13	+11	56
8	Wolves	37	15	6	16	-3	51
9	Leicester	37	13	10	14	+0	49
10	Brighton	37	11	15	11	-4	48
11	Brentford	37	13	7	17	-7	46
12	Newcastle	37	12	10	15	-19	46
13	Crystal Palace	37	10	15	12	+3	45
14	Aston Villa	37	13	6	18	-1	45
15	Southampton	37	9	13	15	-21	40
16	Everton	37	11	6	20	-19	39
17	Burnley	37	7	14	16	-18	35
18	Leeds	37	8	11	18	-38	35
19	Watford	37	6	5	26	-42	23
20	Norwich	37	5	7	25	-56	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+42	44
3	Tottenham	19	13	1	5	+19	40
4	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
5	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	West Ham	19	9	5	5	+7	32
7	Chelsea	18	8	7	3	+14	31
8	Leicester	18	9	4	5	+8	31
9	Newcastle	19	8	6	5	-1	30
10	Everton	19	9	2	8	+2	29
11	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
12	Southampton	19	6	7	6	-1	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	19	7	3	9	-5	24
15	Aston Villa	19	6	5	8	+0	23
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	19	4	6	9	-19	18
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	19	2	2	15	-29	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	14	4	1	+30	46
2	Liverpool	19	13	4	2	+28	43
3	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+28	40
4	Brighton	19	7	8	4	+2	29
5	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
6	Arsenal	19	9	1	9	-5	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	19	6	4	9	-9	22
12	Crystal Palace	19	4	7	8	-6	19
13	Leicester	19	4	6	9	-8	18
14	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
15	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-18	16
16	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
17	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
18	Burnley	19	2	8	9	-12	14
19	Everton	18	2	4	12	-21	10
20	Norwich	19	2	4	13	-30	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.