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Copa del Rey

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Cartagena

S T U T U

1–5

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cartagena Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

This season — Copa del Rey · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

6,0

Scored

1,0

5,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+5,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

20 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 9

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cartagena 29. · Villarreal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Celta	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Elche	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Levante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Cacereño	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Espanol	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Pontevedra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Gimnastic	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	Intercity	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Ceuta	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Oviedo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Linares Deportivo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
24	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+3	4
25	La Nucía	2	1	1	0	+2	4
26	UD Logroñés	2	1	1	0	+2	4
27	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Eldense	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Cartagena	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Saguntino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Las Palmas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Ibiza	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Guijuelo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Mollerussa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Fuentes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Alcora	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Granada	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Real Unión	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Barbadás	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Numancia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Velarde	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Diocesano	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Algar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
51	Cazalegas	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Arenas Getxo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
54	CD Coria	2	1	0	1	-3	3
55	Santa Amalia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
56	Alcorcon	2	0	2	0	+0	2
57	Huesca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Coruxo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Utebo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Dinamo San Juan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Peña Deportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Atlético Baleares	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Ourense CF	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Montilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
69	Mérida AD	2	0	1	1	-1	1
70	Atlético Paso	2	0	1	1	-1	1
71	Burgos	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Arnedo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
73	Juventud Torremolinos	2	0	1	1	-3	1
74	Rincón	2	0	1	1	-3	1
75	Gernika	2	0	1	1	-3	1
76	Autol	2	0	1	1	-6	1
77	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Gimnástica Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Los Yébenes SB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Unión Adarve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Turégano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Lugo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Utrera	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Cirbonero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Cardassar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Racing Rioja	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Cristo Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Fuenlabrada	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Almazán	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Lealtad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Vimenor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	San Juan	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Almeria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Alzira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Amigó	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Huétor Tájar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Olot	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cacereño	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Saguntino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Intercity	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Guijuelo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Levante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Pontevedra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Linares Deportivo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Oviedo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Mollerussa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Real Unión	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Barbadás	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Velarde	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Diocesano	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Algar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	Cazalegas	2	1	0	1	-2	3
22	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Arenas Getxo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
24	CD Coria	2	1	0	1	-3	3
25	Santa Amalia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
26	Coruxo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Utebo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Peña Deportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Ourense CF	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Montilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	UD Logroñés	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	La Nucía	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Atlético Paso	2	0	1	1	-1	1
36	Arnedo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
37	Juventud Torremolinos	2	0	1	1	-3	1
38	Gernika	2	0	1	1	-3	1
39	Autol	2	0	1	1	-6	1
40	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Gimnástica Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Unión Adarve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Quintanar del Rey	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Utrera	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Cirbonero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Racing Rioja	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Cristo Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Almazán	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Lealtad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Vimenor	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	San Juan	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Alzira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Fuentes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Amigó	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Huétor Tájar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Alcora	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Rincón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Olot	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Celta	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Valladolid	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Elche	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Espanol	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Cartagena	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Las Palmas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Levante	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Alcora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Fuentes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	La Nucía	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Pontevedra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Numancia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Ibiza	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Oviedo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Linares Deportivo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Intercity	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Granada	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Huesca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Eldense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Mérida AD	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Dinamo San Juan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Real Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Atlético Baleares	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Rincón	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
48	Burgos	2	0	1	1	-1	1
49	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Los Yébenes SB	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Turégano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Lugo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Cardassar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Fuenlabrada	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Almeria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.