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Copa del Rey
Referee: Germán Cid
Estepona
3–2
Full-time
Malaga
U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Yeclano 1 1 0 0 +6 3
2 Villarreal 1 1 0 0 +5 3
3 Deportiva Minera 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Celta 1 1 0 0 +4 3
6 Zaragoza 1 1 0 0 +4 3
7 Unionistas de Salamanca 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Chiclana 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 Barbastro 1 1 0 0 +4 3
10 Espanol 1 1 0 0 +4 3
11 Girona 1 1 0 0 +4 3
12 Burgos 1 1 0 0 +3 3
13 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +3 3
14 Elche 1 1 0 0 +3 3
15 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Cadiz 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Vic 2 1 0 1 +2 3
18 Barakaldo 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Manises 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Huesca 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Granada 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Santander 1 1 0 0 +1 3
24 Ourense CF 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 Cacereño 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Zamora 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Europa Fc 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Leganes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Orihuela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Marbella 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Sant Andreu 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Almeria 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Andorra 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Sp Gijon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 UD Logroñés 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Cartagena 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Eldense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Alaves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Castellon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Parla Escuela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Salamanca UDS 1 1 0 0 +1 3
43 Conquense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
44 Astur 2 1 0 1 -1 3
45 UD San Pedro 2 1 0 1 -2 3
46 Villamuriel 2 1 0 1 -4 3
47 Olot 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Cordoba 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 Selaya 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Baztán 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Ontiñena 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Gévora 1 0 1 0 +0 1
53 Playas Sotavento 1 0 1 0 +0 1
54 Escobedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
55 Ponferradina 1 0 1 0 +0 1
56 Real Ávila 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Oviedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 San Tirso 2 0 1 1 -4 1
59 Lanzarote 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Guijuelo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 Gimnástica Segoviana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 Juventud Torremolinos 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Albacete 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Ciudad de Lucena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Langreo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Bergantiños 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Mirandes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 SS Reyes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Don Benito 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 Numancia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Eibar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
73 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Atlético Paso 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Compostela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Águilas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Sonseca 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Aurrerá Vitoria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Alcorcon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Ibiza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -2 0
82 Lleida Esportiu 1 0 0 1 -2 0
83 Dolorense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
84 Badalona 1 0 0 1 -2 0
85 Promesas EDF 1 0 0 1 -2 0
86 Cortes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
87 Móstoles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
88 CD Coria 1 0 0 1 -3 0
89 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
90 Real Jaén 1 0 0 1 -3 0
91 L'Hospitalet 1 0 0 1 -4 0
92 Utebo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
93 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -4 0
94 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -4 0
95 Sporting Mahón 1 0 0 1 -4 0
96 Extremadura 1924 1 0 0 1 -4 0
97 Poblense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
98 Tudelano 1 0 0 1 -5 0
99 Laredo 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estepona Malaga
18′
🟨 D. Murillo
29′
⚽ R. Baturina 0–1
Half-time 0–1
A. Carrasco 🟨
46′
1–1 Rubén Mesa ⚽
Alfonso Candelas
59′
61′
🔁 Puga
↦ Diego Murillo
61′
🔁 Manu Molina
↦ A. Moloney
Ramón Blázquez 🔁
↦ Orobiogoikoetxea
65′
Mati Castillo 🔁
↦ Álex Carrasco
66′
71′
🔁 Kevin Medina
↦ Julen Lobete
71′
🔁 Antonio Cordero
↦ Y. Rahmani
77′
🔁 Sergio Castel
↦ R. Baturina
J. Dago 🔁
↦ Alfonso Candelas
81′
Jorge García 🔁
↦ Rubén Mesa
82′
Eric Gómez 🔁
↦ Marchena
82′
J. Dago 🟨
84′
90′
🔁 David Larrubia
↦ Izan Merino
Fran Lara 🔁
↦ Juanan Aguilera
96′
2–1 Jorge García ⚽
J. Dago
102′
107′
🟨 A. Pastor
111′
🟥 S. Castel
3–1 J. Dago ⚽
116′
118′
⚽ David Larrubia 3–2
Puga
I. Goma 🟨
123′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Estepona

13 Alfonso Liceras
22 José Caro
5 Antonio Marín
3 Alfonso Candelas
4 Diego Mirapeix
27 Álex Carrasco
8 Nacho Goma
16 Marchena
28 Orobiogoikoetxea
15 Juanan Aguilera
9 Rubén Mesa
Bench (11)
7 Ramón Blázquez
23 Mati Castillo
19 J. Dago
14 Jorge García
20 Eric Gómez
6 Fran Lara
21 Fran Callejón
11 Ruizma
24 Álvaro Hidalgo
1 David Gil
18 R. Lafarge

Coach: Oriol Riera

Malaga

13 Carlos López
14 Víctor García
5 Álex Pastor
16 Diego Murillo
15 M. Diarra
29 Izan Merino
21 Y. Rahmani
23 Sangalli
35 A. Moloney
9 R. Baturina
24 Julen Lobete
Bench (11)
3 Puga
12 Manu Molina
11 Kevin Medina
26 Antonio Cordero
25 Sergio Castel
10 David Larrubia
18 Dani Sánchez
1 Alfonso Herrero
17 Dioni
20 Nélson Monte
4 Einar Galilea

Coach: Sergio Pellicer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

Referee

Germán Cid · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.