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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Vilaverdense

S S S S

1–4

Full-time

Belenenses

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vilaverdense Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

3,5

1,8

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,2

This season — Taça de Portugal · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

75%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

3,5

3,0

Conceded

0,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Vilaverdense 1. · Belenenses 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Beira-Mar	4	4	0	0	+11	12
3	Varzim	5	4	0	1	+2	12
4	São João Ver	4	3	0	1	+10	9
5	Leixoes	4	3	0	1	+9	9
6	Vitoria Setubal	3	3	0	0	+9	9
7	Belenenses	3	3	0	0	+9	9
8	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
9	Academico Viseu	3	3	0	0	+8	9
10	Dumiense	4	3	0	1	+6	9
11	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+5	9
12	Nacional	3	3	0	0	+5	9
13	Valadares Gaia	4	3	0	1	+4	9
14	Sanjoanense	4	3	0	1	+4	9
15	Rabo Peixe	3	3	0	0	+4	9
16	Camacha	4	2	1	1	+4	7
17	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
18	Oliveira Hospital	4	2	1	1	-5	7
19	Porto	2	2	0	0	+9	6
20	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
21	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+5	6
22	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
23	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
24	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+4	6
25	Montalegre	3	2	0	1	+4	6
26	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+4	6
27	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
28	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	6
29	Sertanense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
30	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
31	Farense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
32	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
33	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+2	6
34	Pevidem	3	2	0	1	+1	6
35	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
36	Mafra	3	2	0	1	+0	6
37	Tirsense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
38	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
39	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
40	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
41	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
42	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
43	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
44	Pombal	3	1	1	1	-2	4
45	Machico	3	1	1	1	-3	4
46	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
47	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
48	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
49	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
50	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
51	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Courense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
74	Anadia	2	1	0	1	-5	3
75	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
81	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
140	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
141	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
142	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
143	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
144	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
145	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
147	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
148	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
149	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
150	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
151	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
152	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Varzim	5	4	0	1	+2	12
3	Pêro Pinheiro	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Rabo Peixe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
19	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
20	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
22	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Mafra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
54	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Vianense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Montalegre	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
87	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
88	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
90	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
91	Anadia	1	0	0	1	-6	0
92	Courense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
93	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Farense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Pevidem	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Camacha	3	1	1	1	+3	4
14	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
16	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Dumiense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Sanjoanense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
49	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
54	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
55	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Valadares Gaia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
101	Machico	1	0	0	1	-4	0
102	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
103	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
104	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
105	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
106	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
107	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-7	0
108	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.