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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Arouca

T U T S T

0–0

Full-time

Belenenses

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 18%

21%

15%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

52%

33%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Belenenses 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	33	28	4	1	+62	88
2	Sp Lisbon	33	26	4	3	+46	82
3	Benfica	34	23	5	6	+48	74
4	Sp Braga	33	19	8	6	+22	65
5	Gil Vicente	33	13	12	8	+10	51
6	Guimaraes	33	12	9	12	+4	45
7	Santa Clara	33	9	13	11	-12	40
8	Estoril	33	9	12	12	-5	39
9	Maritimo	33	9	11	13	-4	38
10	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	11	14	-15	38
11	Boavista	33	7	16	10	-13	37
12	Famalicao	33	8	12	13	-7	36
13	Portimonense	33	9	8	16	-15	35
14	Vizela	33	7	12	14	-18	33
15	Arouca	33	7	9	17	-24	30
16	Tondela	33	7	6	20	-26	27
17	Moreirense	33	6	8	19	-21	26
18	Belenenses	33	5	10	18	-32	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+22	40
3	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+14	34
4	Benfica	17	10	3	4	+20	33
5	Santa Clara	17	8	6	3	+1	30
6	Guimaraes	16	8	3	5	+9	27
7	Gil Vicente	17	6	6	5	+6	24
8	Boavista	17	4	10	3	+0	22
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	6	6	-3	21
10	Estoril	17	4	8	5	+0	20
11	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
12	Vizela	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Maritimo	16	4	6	6	+3	18
14	Arouca	16	5	3	8	-14	18
15	Belenenses	17	5	3	9	-15	18
16	Portimonense	17	4	4	9	-7	16
17	Moreirense	16	4	3	9	-4	15
18	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+24	42
3	Benfica	17	13	2	2	+28	41
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+8	31
5	Gil Vicente	16	7	6	3	+4	27
6	Maritimo	17	5	5	7	-7	20
7	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
8	Portimonense	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Famalicao	17	4	5	8	-7	17
11	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	5	8	-12	17
12	Boavista	16	3	6	7	-13	15
13	Vizela	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Arouca	17	2	6	9	-10	12
15	Tondela	17	3	3	11	-17	12
16	Moreirense	17	2	5	10	-17	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	7	8	-13	10
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.