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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

União Santarém

T S T S S

1–2

Full-time

Moreirense

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

União Santarém Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Anadia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
13	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
66	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
68	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
78	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
131	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
32	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.