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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Pedro Ramalho

CF Os Belenenses

T S T S S

0–2

Full-time

Gil Vicente

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

CF Os Belenenses Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Anadia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
13	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
65	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
66	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
76	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.