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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Milan

T S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Udinese

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Udinese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

57%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

100%

57%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,18 xG 0,44

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

3 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Udinese 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	1	1	+9	+4.7	16
2	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.7	14
3	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	+5.7	13
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.6	13
5	Udinese	7	4	1	2	+0	-3.8	13
6	Milan	7	3	2	2	+6	+5.9	11
7	Torino	7	3	2	2	+1	-3.3	11
8	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+3	+6.3	10
9	Roma	7	2	4	1	+3	+1.2	10
10	Empoli	7	2	4	1	+2	-3.3	10
11	Fiorentina	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.1	10
12	Verona	7	3	0	4	+0	-1.6	9
13	Bologna	8	1	6	1	-2	-0.6	9
14	Como	8	2	3	3	-4	-0.1	9
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-2	-1.6	7
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.3	6
17	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-10	-7.1	6
18	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.5	5
19	Monza	7	0	4	3	-4	-4.6	4
20	Venezia	7	1	1	5	-7	-4.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	+4.7	12
2	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.5	10
3	Inter	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.0	9
4	Udinese	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.2	9
5	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.6	8
6	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.3	7
7	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.4	6
8	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.5	6
9	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.5	6
10	Verona	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
11	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
12	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
13	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
14	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
15	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
16	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
17	Empoli	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.6	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3
19	Monza	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
20	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.7	7
3	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.0	7
4	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
5	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	-1.3	5
6	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
7	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.2	4
8	Roma	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
9	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
10	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
11	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
12	Como	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.0	4
13	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Parma	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.6	3
16	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-5	-3.8	3
17	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
18	Monza	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
19	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.