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Puchar Polski

Referee: K Gasiorowski

Kalisz

S U

2–0

Full-time

Olimpia Elbląg

U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kalisz Olimpia Elbląg

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

7,0

2,5

Scored

4,5

2,0

Conceded

2,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

This season — Puchar Polski · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

7,0

2,5

Scored

4,5

2,0

Conceded

2,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Kalisz 6. · Olimpia Elbląg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Motor Lublin	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Piast Gliwice	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Pogoń Siedlce	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Radunia Stężyca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Kalisz	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Olimpia Elbląg	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Stal Rzeszów	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wisla	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Zaglebie	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Slask Wroclaw	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Radomiak Radom	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Chrobry Głogów	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Wisla Plock	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Cracovia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	GKS Katowice	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Warta Poznan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Jastrzębie	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Legia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Ruch Chorzow	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Puszcza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Resovia Rzeszów	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Gornik Zabrze	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Rakow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Chojniczanka Chojnice	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
31	Widzew Lodz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Korona Kielce	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Pogon Szczecin	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	LKS Lodz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Garbarnia Kraków	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Arka Gdynia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Górnik Łęczna	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stal Mielec	2	0	1	1	-3	1
39	Lech Poznań II	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wisła Puławy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Nieciecza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Stal Stalowa Wola	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Podbeskidzie	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wikielec	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Tychy 71	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Lechia Dzierżoniów	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Legnica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Odra Opole	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Śląsk Wrocław II	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Hutnik Kraków	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Stomil Olsztyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	SKRA Częstochowa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Łagów	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Górnik Polkowice	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Znicz Pruszków	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Polonia Środa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Pogoń Szczecin II	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Wieczysta Krakow	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Sokół Ostróda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Chełmianka Chełm	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Radomsko	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Bałtyk Gdynia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Wigry Suwałki	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Start Jełowa	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Legia Warszawa II	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Stal Rzeszów	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Motor Lublin	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Chojniczanka Chojnice	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Pogoń Siedlce	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Jastrzębie	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Radunia Stężyca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Ruch Chorzow	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Resovia Rzeszów	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Kalisz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	LKS Lodz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Garbarnia Kraków	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Arka Gdynia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Lech Poznań II	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Nieciecza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Stal Stalowa Wola	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Wikielec	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Lechia Dzierżoniów	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Odra Opole	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Stomil Olsztyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	SKRA Częstochowa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Łagów	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Górnik Polkowice	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Polonia Środa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Pogoń Szczecin II	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Wieczysta Krakow	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Radomsko	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Bałtyk Gdynia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Stal Mielec	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Wigry Suwałki	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Start Jełowa	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	Legia Warszawa II	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Piast Gliwice	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Olimpia Elbląg	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Wisla	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Kalisz	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Zaglebie	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Slask Wroclaw	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Radomiak Radom	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Chrobry Głogów	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Wisla Plock	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Cracovia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Motor Lublin	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	GKS Katowice	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Radunia Stężyca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Warta Poznan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Pogoń Siedlce	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Legia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Puszcza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Gornik Zabrze	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rakow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Widzew Lodz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Korona Kielce	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Pogon Szczecin	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Stal Mielec	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Górnik Łęczna	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Wisła Puławy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Podbeskidzie	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Tychy 71	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Legnica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Śląsk Wrocław II	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Hutnik Kraków	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Chojniczanka Chojnice	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Znicz Pruszków	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Sokół Ostróda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
38	Chełmianka Chełm	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Kalisz Olimpia Elbląg

1–0 Néstor Gordillo ⚽

18′

19′

🟨 D. Danilczyk

A. Luszkiewicz 🟨

23′

P. Zmorzynski 🟨

31′

M. Gawlik 🟨

32′

Half-time 1–0

48′

🟨 L. Sarnowski

2–0 Néstor Gordillo ⚽

51′

60′

🔁 J. Branecki

↦ D. Wojtyra

D. Kamiński 🔁

↦ P. Zmorzyński

65′

N. Zawistowski 🔁

↦ K. Smajdor

65′

69′

🔁 D. Wierzba

↦ P. Jakubczyk

69′

🔁 Y. Senkevich

↦ M. Rajch

M. Borecki 🔁

↦ Néstor Gordillo

71′

77′

🔁 M. Famulak

↦ M. Czernis

77′

🔁 P. Kazimierowski

↦ K. Gutowski

J. Wilczyński 🔁

↦ P. Giel

83′

K. Koczy 🔁

↦ B. Putno

83′

93′

🟨 A. Stasiak

Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Kalisz

M. Górski

M. Gawlik

F. Kendzia

K. Smajdor

P. Zmorzyński

W. Smoliński

A. Łuszkiewicz

Néstor Gordillo

B. Putno

M. Wysokiński

P. Giel

Bench (9)

D. Kamiński

N. Zawistowski

M. Borecki

J. Wilczyński

K. Koczy

B. Gęsior

K. Lipkowski

M. Krakowiak

W. Staszak

Coach: B. Tarachulski

Olimpia Elbląg

Ł. Łęgowski

K. Gutowski

Ł. Sarnowski

M. Kuczałek

M. Stefaniak

M. Czernis

D. Danilczyk

P. Jakubczyk

A. Stasiak

M. Rajch

D. Wojtyra

Bench (7)

J. Branecki

D. Wierzba

Y. Senkevich

M. Famulak

P. Kazimierowski

A. Witan

K. Filipczyk

Coach: P. Gomułka

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

31. Aug CUP 4 years ago

27. Jul CUP 4 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Kalisz

Olimpia Elbląg

Odds comparison

Recent matches