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DFB-Pokal

Referee: R Braun

VfB Lubeck

0–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

VfB Lubeck Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,0

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match VfB Lubeck 28. · Mainz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+8	3
3	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+8	3
5	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Stuttgarter Kickers	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	VfB Lubeck	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Waldhof Mannheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
61	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
62	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgarter Kickers	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	VfB Lubeck	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Waldhof Mannheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
21	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
24	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
25	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
26	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
27	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
28	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
29	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
30	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
31	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
32	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+8	3
3	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+8	3
5	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

VfB Lubeck Mainz

9′

🟨 Angelo Fulgini

16′

⚽ A. Hack 0–1

K. Onisiwo

28′

🟨 Aarón Martín

Tommy Grupe 🟨

38′

43′

⚽ M. Ingvartsen 0–2

Half-time 0–2

K. Hovi 🔁

↦ J. Löhden

59′

T. Gözüsirin 🔁

↦ M. Farrona Pulido

59′

61′

🔁 A. Barkok

↦ M. Ingvartsen

71′

🔁 D. Kohr

↦ A. Stach

72′

🔁 B. Bobzien

↦ K. Onisiwo

M. Thiel 🔁

↦ M. Rüdiger

73′

80′

🔁 N. Tauer

↦ D. da Costa

V. Taritaš 🔁

↦ M. Hauptmann

81′

M. Daube 🔁

↦ R. Kölle

81′

88′

⚽ A. Barkok 0–3

A. Fulgini

Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

VfB Lubeck

4-3-3

19 F. Kirschke G

2 R. Kölle D

33 N. Kastenhofer D

30 J. Löhden D

24 M. Rüdiger D

8 F. Egerer M

17 T. Grupe M

31 M. Boland M

7 M. Hauptmann F

11 F. Drinkuth F

10 M. Farrona Pulido F

Bench (9)

9 K. Hovi

25 T. Gözüsirin

13 M. Thiel

20 V. Taritaš

23 M. Daube

3 J. Lippegaus

6 N. Plume

32 C. Barkmann

5 F. Kassimou

Coach: L. Pfeiffer

Mainz

3-4-2-1

F. Dahmen G

E. Fernandes D

A. Hack D

A. Caci D

D. da Costa M

L. Barreiro M

A. Stach M

Aarón Martín M

9 K. Onisiwo F

10 A. Fulgini F

11 M. Ingvartsen F

Bench (9)

4 A. Barkok

31 D. Kohr

38 B. Bobzien

17 N. Tauer

7 Lee Jae-Sung

41 E. Shabani

29 J. Burkardt

27 R. Zentner

35 K. Mizuta

Coach: B. Svensson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

30. Jul POK 4 years ago

Referee

R Braun · 47 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,7 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

25,1 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

VfB Lubeck

Mainz

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee