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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

QPR

T U S U S

2–1

Full-time

Cardiff

S U U T U

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

20 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Corners 4

10 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 5. · Cardiff 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+6	+1.4	10
2	Charlton	3	3	0	0	+3	-2.8	9
3	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+5	+4.6	7
4	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
5	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.0	7
6	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	-4.2	7
7	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	+3.4	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.9	6
9	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.3	6
10	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.5	6
11	Birmingham	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.2	6
12	West Ham	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.5	5
13	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
14	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
15	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.1	4
16	Derby	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.6	4
17	Lincoln	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.1	4
18	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
19	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
20	Portsmouth	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
21	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.2	3
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
23	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.4	1
24	Preston	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
4	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
8	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
9	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
10	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
12	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
13	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
14	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
15	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
16	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
17	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
18	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
19	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
20	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
21	Lincoln	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
22	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
24	Portsmouth	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.6	4
4	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
5	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
6	Derby	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
9	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
11	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
12	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
13	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
14	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
15	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
16	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
17	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
18	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
19	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
20	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
22	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Apr -25 QPR – Cardiff 0–0 27. Nov -24 Cardiff – QPR 0–2 1. Jan -24 QPR – Cardiff 1–2 12. Aug -23 Cardiff – QPR 1–2 26. Dec -22 Cardiff – QPR 0–0

Match report

QPR Cardiff

1–0 R. Burrell ⚽

36′

Half-time 1–0

46′

🔁 C. Willock

↦ C. Ashford

46′

🔁 K. Bielik

↦ C. Scanlon

47′

🟨 O. Tanner

2–0 R. Burrell ⚽

R. Edwards

53′

J. Varane 🔁

↦ N. Madsen

71′

J. Clarke-Salter 🔁

↦ T. Lamptey

72′

K. Adamson 🔁

↦ A. S. Mbengue

72′

D. Cirkin 🔁

↦ G. Kamara

72′

75′

⚽ P. Ng 2–1

O. Tanner

77′

🟨 P. Ng

80′

🔁 J. Colwill

↦ J. Moylan

I. Chair 🔁

↦ A. Lloyd

81′

89′

🔁 C. Robinson

↦ A. Robertson

89′

🔁 I. Davies

↦ O. Tanner

Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

QPR

4-4-2

P. Charles G

A. S. Mbengue D

J. Dunne D

R. Edwards D

T. Lamptey D

H. Vale M

G. Kamara M

N. Madsen M

K. Saito M

A. Lloyd F

R. Burrell F

Bench (9)

13 C. Ward

19 D. Cirkin

2 K. Adamson

6 J. Clarke-Salter

10 I. Chair

40 J. Varane

25 J. Obikwu

11 P. Smyth

22 R. Kone

Coach: Julien Stephan

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

N. Trott G

P. Ng D

G. Osho D

J. Bagan D

C. Scanlon D

A. Robertson M

C. Ashford M

O. Tanner M

R. Colwill M

J. Moylan M

Y. Salech F

Bench (9)

30 H. Tyrer

44 R. Kpakio

14 D. Turnbull

16 C. Willock

5 K. Bielik

27 J. Colwill

33 R. Tankiewicz

39 I. Davies

47 C. Robinson

Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,92

🔒

Dafabet 1,98 SBO 1,91 Betano 1,87 Pinnacle 1,84 Superbet 1,82 10Bet 1,81 1xBet 1,81 Bet365 1,80 Betfair 1,80 BetVictor 1,80 William Hill 1,80 Marathonbet 1,79 Unibet 1,78

3,77

🔒

Pinnacle 4,16 Betano 4,05 1xBet 4,00 Superbet 4,00 BetVictor 4,00 Marathonbet 4,00 Unibet 3,95 Bet365 3,90 Betfair 3,90 William Hill 3,90 10Bet 3,85 Dafabet 3,80 SBO 3,47

3,60

🔒

Betano 4,10 Betfair 4,00 Superbet 4,00 Pinnacle 3,98 10Bet 3,90 Bet365 3,90 Unibet 3,90 BetVictor 3,90 Marathonbet 3,80 William Hill 3,80 1xBet 3,78 Dafabet 3,70 SBO 3,38

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,16

🔒