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Super League

Referee: S Sozza

PAOK

U S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Olympiakos

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PAOK Olympiakos

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 62%

60%

63%

Points per game

2,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

57%

37%

Both score Ø 34%

37%

30%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,7

0,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,95 xG 2,28

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PAOK 3. · Olympiakos 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	30	21	7	2	+37	+11.3	70
2	Olympiakos	30	19	8	3	+36	+13.1	65
3	PAOK	30	18	8	4	+34	+5.5	62
4	Panathinaikos	30	15	9	6	+18	+7.5	54
5	Levadeiakos	32	13	10	9	+15	-5.5	49
6	OFI Crete	32	13	3	16	-8	-7.0	42
7	Atromitos	34	10	11	13	-1	-0.7	41
8	Aris Thessalonikis	29	8	13	8	-4	-1.2	37
9	Aris	29	8	13	8	-4	–	37
10	Kifisia	34	7	14	13	-11	+2.0	35
11	Panetolikos	34	9	7	18	-15	-6.4	34
12	Volos NFC	32	9	6	17	-19	-1.6	33
13	Panserraikos	34	7	9	18	-40	-5.8	30
14	Asteras Tripolis	34	6	11	17	-16	-3.4	29
15	Larisa	34	5	13	16	-22	-7.7	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	15	13	1	1	+24	+7.6	40
2	PAOK	15	12	3	0	+26	+4.8	39
3	Olympiakos	15	10	3	2	+19	+4.9	33
4	Levadeiakos	17	9	5	3	+20	-0.6	32
5	Panathinaikos	15	9	4	2	+15	+2.8	31
6	OFI Crete	17	8	0	9	+4	-2.9	24
7	Volos NFC	15	5	6	4	-3	+4.3	21
8	Asteras Tripolis	17	5	5	7	+1	+0.7	20
9	Aris Thessalonikis	14	3	9	2	+0	+4.0	18
10	Aris	14	3	9	2	+0	–	18
11	Atromitos	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.0	18
12	Kifisia	17	4	6	7	-3	+2.9	18
13	Larisa	17	3	7	7	-10	-0.3	16
14	Panetolikos	17	4	2	11	-11	-0.5	14
15	Panserraikos	17	3	5	9	-20	-4.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Olympiakos	15	9	5	1	+17	+8.1	32
2	AEK	15	8	6	1	+13	+3.7	30
3	PAOK	15	6	5	4	+8	+0.6	23
4	Panathinaikos	15	6	5	4	+3	+4.7	23
5	Atromitos	17	6	5	6	+2	-1.7	23
6	Panetolikos	17	5	5	7	-4	-6.0	20
7	Aris Thessalonikis	15	5	4	6	-4	-5.2	19
8	Aris	15	5	4	6	-4	–	19
9	OFI Crete	15	5	3	7	-12	-4.2	18
10	Levadeiakos	15	4	5	6	-5	-4.9	17
11	Kifisia	17	3	8	6	-8	-0.9	17
12	Panserraikos	17	4	4	9	-20	-1.7	16
13	Larisa	17	2	6	9	-12	-7.4	12
14	Volos NFC	17	4	0	13	-16	-5.8	12
15	Asteras Tripolis	17	1	6	10	-17	-4.1	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.