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2. Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Elversberg

S U T S U

5–1

Full-time

Paderborn

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elversberg Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 54%

52%

55%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

55%

61%

Both score Ø 62%

55%

68%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

2,72 xG 1,10

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Elversberg 4. · Paderborn 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	32	20	7	5	+21	+16.6	67
2	Paderborn	31	17	7	7	+16	+14.4	58
3	Hannover	31	16	9	6	+16	+12.6	57
4	Elversberg	31	16	8	7	+20	+7.1	56
5	Darmstadt	31	13	12	6	+15	+2.8	51
6	Hertha	31	13	9	9	+8	-2.1	48
7	Kaiserslautern	32	14	4	14	+2	-2.5	46
8	Holstein Kiel	32	11	8	13	-1	-10.9	41
9	Nurnberg	31	11	8	12	-1	+1.6	41
10	Bochum	32	10	10	12	+1	+3.7	40
11	Karlsruhe	31	11	7	13	-11	-20.6	40
12	Dresden	32	10	8	14	+1	+2.4	38
13	Bielefeld	32	9	9	14	-1	+2.3	36
14	Braunschweig	32	9	7	16	-18	-3.0	34
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	32	10	4	18	-19	-6.4	34
16	Magdeburg	31	10	3	18	-8	+6.3	33
17	Greuther Furth	31	9	6	16	-21	-10.8	33
18	Preußen Münster	31	6	10	15	-20	-13.5	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	16	12	3	1	+14	+9.4	39
2	Darmstadt	16	10	5	1	+17	+8.6	35
3	Paderborn	16	10	2	4	+8	+10.5	32
4	Kaiserslautern	16	10	1	5	+14	+4.7	31
5	Elversberg	15	9	4	2	+14	+5.7	31
6	Bochum	16	8	4	4	+9	+10.3	28
7	Nurnberg	16	8	4	4	+7	+4.3	28
8	Karlsruhe	15	8	3	4	+5	-5.6	27
9	Hannover	15	7	4	4	+4	+7.9	25
10	Bielefeld	16	6	5	5	+8	+12.9	23
11	Holstein Kiel	16	6	4	6	+5	+0.8	22
12	Dresden	16	6	3	7	+7	+9.2	21
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.3	21
14	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-3	+0.7	20
15	Braunschweig	16	5	5	6	-7	+3.4	20
16	Greuther Furth	15	5	4	6	-8	-4.1	19
17	Preußen Münster	16	3	7	6	-4	-2.6	16
18	Magdeburg	15	4	2	9	-5	+7.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	16	9	5	2	+12	+4.8	32
2	Hertha	15	8	4	3	+11	-2.8	28
3	Schalke 04	16	8	4	4	+7	+7.2	28
4	Paderborn	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.9	26
5	Elversberg	16	7	4	5	+6	+1.4	25
6	Magdeburg	16	6	1	9	-3	-1.2	19
7	Holstein Kiel	16	5	4	7	-6	-11.7	19
8	Dresden	16	4	5	7	-6	-6.8	17
9	Darmstadt	15	3	7	5	-2	-5.8	16
10	Kaiserslautern	16	4	3	9	-12	-7.2	15
11	Braunschweig	16	4	2	10	-11	-6.4	14
12	Greuther Furth	16	4	2	10	-13	-6.7	14
13	Nurnberg	15	3	4	8	-8	-2.7	13
14	Bielefeld	16	3	4	9	-9	-10.6	13
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	1	11	-13	-5.1	13
16	Karlsruhe	16	3	4	9	-16	-15.1	13
17	Bochum	16	2	6	8	-8	-6.5	12
18	Preußen Münster	15	3	3	9	-16	-11.0	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.