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Bundesliga

Referee: H Lechner

Salzburg

S T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 47%

45%

48%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

62%

41%

Both score Ø 61%

66%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,47 xG 1,49

45% Possession 55%

16 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salzburg 3. · Sturm Graz 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	29	14	7	8	+12	+8.1	49
2	LASK	29	14	7	8	+8	+11.8	49
3	Salzburg	29	13	8	8	+18	+9.9	47
4	SK Rapid	29	12	8	9	+1	-0.6	44
5	Austria Vienna	30	13	5	12	-4	+0.2	44
6	Ried	30	12	6	12	-1	+1.5	42
7	Hartberg	30	9	12	9	+0	-13.6	39
8	Tirol	30	10	9	11	-10	+0.6	39
9	Altach	29	9	11	9	-2	-6.4	38
10	Grazer AK	30	8	9	13	-6	-1.0	33
11	Wolfsberger AC	29	8	8	13	-7	-14.4	32
12	BW Linz	30	8	4	18	-9	+3.9	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	14	7	6	1	+7	+1.0	27
2	LASK	14	8	3	3	+6	+9.1	27
3	Ried	15	8	3	4	+4	+4.2	27
4	Tirol	15	7	4	4	+3	+3.2	25
5	Grazer AK	15	6	6	3	+6	+2.8	24
6	SK Rapid	15	7	2	6	+1	-0.8	23
7	BW Linz	15	7	1	7	+8	+7.3	22
8	Salzburg	14	6	3	5	+8	+5.1	21
9	Wolfsberger AC	15	5	6	4	+3	-3.5	21
10	Austria Vienna	15	6	3	6	-5	+1.3	21
11	Sturm Graz	15	5	5	5	-2	+3.9	20
12	Hartberg	15	4	5	6	-4	-4.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	14	9	2	3	+14	+4.3	29
2	Salzburg	15	7	5	3	+10	+4.9	26
3	Austria Vienna	15	7	2	6	+1	-1.1	23
4	Hartberg	15	5	7	3	+4	-9.0	22
5	LASK	15	6	4	5	+2	+2.7	22
6	SK Rapid	14	5	6	3	+0	+0.2	21
7	Ried	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.7	15
8	Tirol	15	3	5	7	-13	-2.6	14
9	Altach	15	2	5	8	-9	-7.4	11
10	Wolfsberger AC	14	3	2	9	-10	-10.9	11
11	Grazer AK	15	2	3	10	-12	-3.9	9
12	BW Linz	15	1	3	11	-17	-3.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.