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Super League

Referee: J von Mandach

Lugano

U U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Young Boys

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Young Boys

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

44%

74%

Both score Ø 67%

62%

71%

Average goals

2,6

3,8

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,87 xG 1,19

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 3. · Young Boys 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	35	24	2	9	+35	+4.5	74
2	St. Gallen	35	18	9	8	+22	+10.0	63
3	Lugano	34	17	9	8	+13	-0.4	60
4	Sion	35	15	13	7	+21	+14.8	58
5	Basel	35	16	8	11	+6	+11.9	56
6	Young Boys	34	13	9	12	+4	-1.0	48
7	Luzern	35	12	10	13	+6	+2.6	46
8	Servette	34	10	13	11	+2	+9.6	43
9	Lausanne	35	11	9	15	-9	+1.5	42
10	Zurich	35	10	5	20	-21	-9.2	35
11	Grasshoppers	34	6	9	19	-26	-19.1	27
12	Winterthur	35	4	8	23	-53	-25.3	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	18	12	2	4	+21	+2.2	38
2	Lugano	16	10	3	3	+12	-0.8	33
3	St. Gallen	18	10	2	6	+10	+13.6	32
4	Sion	17	8	6	3	+13	+8.1	30
5	Basel	18	8	6	4	+10	+19.1	30
6	Young Boys	17	8	4	5	+15	+11.0	28
7	Servette	18	6	7	5	+6	+7.0	25
8	Lausanne	18	6	5	7	+2	+10.5	23
9	Zurich	17	6	1	10	-6	-0.3	19
10	Luzern	17	4	6	7	+3	+4.9	18
11	Grasshoppers	17	3	5	9	-7	-7.0	14
12	Winterthur	17	2	5	10	-18	-3.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	17	12	0	5	+14	+2.3	36
2	St. Gallen	17	8	7	2	+12	-3.6	31
3	Sion	18	7	7	4	+8	+6.7	28
4	Luzern	18	8	4	6	+3	-2.3	28
5	Lugano	18	7	6	5	+1	+0.4	27
6	Basel	17	8	2	7	-4	-7.2	26
7	Young Boys	17	5	5	7	-11	-12.0	20
8	Lausanne	17	5	4	8	-11	-9.0	19
9	Servette	16	4	6	6	-4	+2.6	18
10	Zurich	18	4	4	10	-15	-8.9	16
11	Grasshoppers	17	3	4	10	-19	-12.1	13
12	Winterthur	18	2	3	13	-35	-21.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.