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Bundesliga

Referee: J Spurny

Sturm Graz

S S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Wolfsberger AC

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Wolfsberger AC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 64%

78%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

44%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 2

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · Wolfsberger AC 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	9	7	0	2	+11	+2.9	21
2	Salzburg	10	5	3	2	+7	+4.2	18
3	Wolfsberger AC	10	5	2	3	+6	+0.1	17
4	SK Rapid	10	5	2	3	+2	+0.8	17
5	Austria Vienna	10	5	1	4	+0	+0.0	16
6	Ried	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.4	14
7	Altach	11	3	5	3	+0	+1.1	14
8	Hartberg	11	3	4	4	+0	-0.4	13
9	LASK	11	4	1	6	-5	-5.0	13
10	Tirol	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.9	12
11	BW Linz	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.2	10
12	Grazer AK	11	0	6	5	-14	-3.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	6	3	2	1	+7	+2.7	11
2	Tirol	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.9	10
3	LASK	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.9	10
4	Wolfsberger AC	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.1	9
5	Altach	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.9	9
6	SK Rapid	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
7	BW Linz	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.3	6
8	Austria Vienna	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.2	6
9	Ried	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.5	5
10	Grazer AK	6	0	4	2	-5	-0.2	4
11	Sturm Graz	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.0	3
12	Hartberg	3	0	1	2	-2	–	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	6	6	0	0	+12	+2.9	18
2	Hartberg	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.4	12
3	Austria Vienna	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.2	10
4	SK Rapid	5	3	1	1	+2	-0.0	10
5	Ried	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.9	9
6	Wolfsberger AC	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.2	8
7	Salzburg	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.5	7
8	Altach	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.1	5
9	BW Linz	6	1	1	4	-7	-0.8	4
10	LASK	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.2	3
11	Tirol	4	0	2	2	-5	–	2
12	Grazer AK	5	0	2	3	-9	-2.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.