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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Stuttgart

S T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

71%

14%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,94 xG 1,45

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 5

5 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 5. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	8	0	0	+26	+17.6	24
2	RB Leipzig	8	6	1	1	+7	+3.6	19
3	Dortmund	8	5	2	1	+8	+5.7	17
4	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+7	+6.7	17
5	Stuttgart	7	5	0	2	+5	+3.5	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+3	+2.5	13
7	Hoffenheim	8	4	1	3	+2	+1.6	13
8	FC Koln	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.4	11
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-4	-5.8	11
10	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-4.8	10
11	Freiburg	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.4	9
12	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.9	8
13	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.5	8
14	St Pauli	8	2	1	5	-6	-3.4	7
15	Augsburg	8	2	1	5	-8	-8.9	7
16	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.0	4
17	Heidenheim	8	1	1	6	-9	-4.2	4
18	M'gladbach	8	0	3	5	-12	-4.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+16	+7.1	12
2	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
3	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
4	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
5	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
6	Union Berlin	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
7	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.8	7
8	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.9	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.9	6
10	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
11	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
12	St Pauli	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
13	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
15	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-8	-6.6	3
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.4	2
17	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-9	-4.3	2
18	Mainz	4	0	0	4	-5	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+10	+10.5	12
2	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.5	10
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.3	10
4	Dortmund	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.7	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.4	7
6	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
7	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.3	7
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.7	6
9	Wolfsburg	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.5	6
10	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
11	Mainz	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.5	4
12	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.9	4
13	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-3	-6.6	4
14	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.0	3
15	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
16	Hamburg	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.5	2
17	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.