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Bundesliga

Referee: H Lechner

Sturm Graz

U U T T S

1–3

Full-time

Tirol

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Tirol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

7 Shots 23

3 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 2. · Tirol 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	15	7	5	3	+12	+4.3	26
2	Sturm Graz	14	8	1	5	+7	+4.6	25
3	LASK	15	8	1	6	+2	-2.5	25
4	SK Rapid	15	7	3	5	+1	-0.4	24
5	Austria Vienna	15	7	2	6	-2	-1.2	23
6	Hartberg	15	6	4	5	+3	-1.0	22
7	Wolfsberger AC	15	6	3	6	+4	-2.6	21
8	Ried	15	6	2	7	-4	-2.7	20
9	Tirol	14	4	6	4	+0	+6.8	18
10	Altach	15	4	6	5	-1	-0.4	18
11	Grazer AK	15	3	6	6	-10	-1.4	15
12	BW Linz	15	3	1	11	-12	-3.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	8	5	1	2	+4	-0.7	16
2	Salzburg	8	4	2	2	+9	+2.5	14
3	Altach	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.1	13
4	Tirol	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.7	11
5	Ried	8	3	2	3	-2	-0.9	11
6	Wolfsberger AC	8	3	1	4	+1	-0.7	10
7	SK Rapid	7	3	1	3	+0	+0.4	10
8	Grazer AK	8	2	4	2	-1	+2.3	10
9	Austria Vienna	8	3	1	4	-5	-0.4	10
10	Hartberg	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.2	7
11	BW Linz	7	2	0	5	-2	-1.2	6
12	Sturm Graz	6	1	1	4	-5	+1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	8	7	0	1	+12	+3.6	21
2	Hartberg	9	4	3	2	+3	-1.3	15
3	SK Rapid	8	4	2	2	+1	-0.8	14
4	Austria Vienna	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.8	13
5	Salzburg	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.9	12
6	Wolfsberger AC	7	3	2	2	+3	-1.9	11
7	Ried	7	3	0	4	-2	-1.8	9
8	LASK	7	3	0	4	-2	-1.8	9
9	Tirol	7	1	4	2	-4	+3.1	7
10	Altach	7	1	2	4	-3	-2.5	5
11	Grazer AK	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.7	5
12	BW Linz	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.