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Bundesliga

Referee: D Pfister

Hartberg

U U S S S

0–1

Full-time

Sturm Graz

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hartberg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 49%

43%

54%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

57%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

57%

54%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,09 xG 1,10

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 20

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hartberg 5. · Sturm Graz 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	14	7	4	3	+12	+3.4	25
2	SK Rapid	14	7	3	4	+4	+0.7	24
3	Austria Vienna	15	7	2	6	-2	-1.2	23
4	Sturm Graz	13	7	1	5	+6	+4.6	22
5	Hartberg	14	6	4	4	+4	-1.0	22
6	LASK	14	7	1	6	-1	-3.6	22
7	Wolfsberger AC	15	6	3	6	+4	-2.6	21
8	Ried	15	6	2	7	-4	-2.7	20
9	Tirol	14	4	6	4	+0	+6.8	18
10	Altach	14	4	5	5	-1	+0.5	17
11	Grazer AK	15	3	6	6	-10	-1.4	15
12	BW Linz	15	3	1	11	-12	-3.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	8	4	2	2	+9	+2.5	14
2	LASK	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.8	13
3	Altach	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
4	Tirol	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.7	11
5	Ried	8	3	2	3	-2	-0.9	11
6	Wolfsberger AC	8	3	1	4	+1	-0.7	10
7	SK Rapid	7	3	1	3	+0	+0.4	10
8	Grazer AK	8	2	4	2	-1	+2.3	10
9	Austria Vienna	8	3	1	4	-5	-0.4	10
10	Hartberg	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.2	7
11	BW Linz	7	2	0	5	-2	-1.2	6
12	Sturm Graz	6	1	1	4	-5	+1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	7	6	0	1	+11	+3.6	18
2	Hartberg	9	4	3	2	+3	-1.3	15
3	SK Rapid	7	4	2	1	+4	+0.2	14
4	Austria Vienna	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.8	13
5	Wolfsberger AC	7	3	2	2	+3	-1.9	11
6	Salzburg	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.9	11
7	Ried	7	3	0	4	-2	-1.8	9
8	LASK	7	3	0	4	-2	-1.8	9
9	Tirol	7	1	4	2	-4	+3.1	7
10	Altach	7	1	2	4	-3	-2.5	5
11	Grazer AK	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.7	5
12	BW Linz	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.