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Super League

Referee: Johannes von Mandach

Lugano

U S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Luzern

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

70%

80%

Both score Ø 80%

70%

90%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,43 xG 1,39

46% Possession 54%

8 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 8. · Luzern 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	11	8	1	2	+10	-1.8	25
2	St. Gallen	11	7	0	4	+12	+2.9	21
3	Basel	11	7	0	4	+7	+7.6	21
4	Sion	11	5	3	3	+4	+3.3	18
5	Young Boys	10	5	2	3	-1	-3.0	17
6	Luzern	10	3	5	2	+1	-3.1	14
7	Servette	11	4	2	5	-2	+0.8	14
8	Lugano	10	4	1	5	-3	+3.6	13
9	Zurich	11	4	1	6	-6	+3.3	13
10	Lausanne	11	3	3	5	+3	+4.7	12
11	Grasshoppers	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.5	9
12	Winterthur	11	0	3	8	-21	-9.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	6	4	0	2	+10	+4.1	12
2	Basel	5	4	0	1	+8	+10.0	12
3	Young Boys	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.2	10
4	Thun	5	3	1	1	+4	-2.4	10
5	Lugano	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.3	10
6	Lausanne	6	3	0	3	+6	+5.6	9
7	Servette	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.7	8
8	Grasshoppers	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.7	7
9	Sion	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.2	7
10	Zurich	5	2	0	3	-3	+3.4	6
11	Luzern	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
12	Winterthur	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	6	5	0	1	+6	+0.6	15
2	Sion	5	3	2	0	+3	+3.5	11
3	Luzern	5	3	2	0	+3	-3.9	11
4	St. Gallen	5	3	0	2	+2	-1.2	9
5	Basel	6	3	0	3	-1	-2.4	9
6	Zurich	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.1	7
7	Young Boys	5	2	1	2	-6	-6.3	7
8	Servette	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.1	6
9	Lausanne	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.0	3
10	Lugano	5	1	0	4	-6	+1.4	3
11	Grasshoppers	5	0	2	3	-7	-6.8	2
12	Winterthur	6	0	1	5	-16	-8.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.