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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Nott'm Forest

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

3,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

6 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 20. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	8	0	1	+13	24
2	Man City	9	7	2	0	+24	23
3	Tottenham	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Man United	8	5	0	3	-2	15
6	Newcastle	9	3	5	1	+8	14
7	Brighton	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	-12	12
9	Fulham	9	3	2	4	-4	11
10	Liverpool	8	2	4	2	+8	10
11	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-1	10
12	Everton	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Leeds	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Aston Villa	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-9	7
18	Wolves	9	1	3	5	-9	6
19	Leicester	9	1	1	7	-9	4
20	Nott'm Forest	8	1	1	6	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+19	15
2	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
3	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+9	12
4	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Newcastle	5	2	3	0	+6	9
6	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+10	8
7	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	Bournemouth	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
11	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Fulham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
15	Man United	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Everton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-2	5
18	Leicester	4	1	1	2	+2	4
19	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	Man United	5	3	0	2	-4	9
3	Man City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
4	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Chelsea	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+2	5
8	Everton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-3	4
10	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-12	4
11	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-2	3
12	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
13	Southampton	5	1	0	4	-8	3
14	Liverpool	4	0	2	2	-2	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Leeds	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-7	1
19	Nott'm Forest	4	0	1	3	-12	1
20	Leicester	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.