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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Nott'm Forest

T U T T U

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Championship · 26/23 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

58%

52%

Both score Ø 51%

54%

48%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

10 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

20 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 15. · Aston Villa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	27	19	5	3	+30	62
2	Derby	26	15	6	5	+21	51
3	Cardiff	27	15	5	7	+15	50
4	Bristol City	27	13	8	6	+8	47
5	Sheffield United	27	13	4	10	+9	43
6	Leeds	27	13	4	10	+8	43
7	Fulham	25	11	8	6	+7	41
8	Preston	27	10	11	6	+4	41
9	Middlesbrough	25	12	4	9	+9	40
10	Brentford	27	10	10	7	+6	40
11	Ipswich	27	12	3	12	+1	39
12	Aston Villa	23	10	7	6	+12	37
13	Norwich	27	10	7	10	-4	37
14	QPR	27	8	9	10	-6	33
15	Nott'm Forest	26	10	2	14	-9	32
16	Millwall	27	7	10	10	-1	31
17	Sheffield Weds	27	7	10	10	-4	31
18	Reading	27	7	8	12	-5	29
19	Barnsley	27	6	9	12	-10	27
20	Hull	27	5	10	12	-5	25
21	Bolton	27	6	7	14	-20	25
22	Burton Albion	27	6	6	15	-25	24
23	Birmingham	27	6	5	16	-23	23
24	Sunderland	27	4	10	13	-18	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	13	10	2	1	+18	32
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	13	8	2	3	+13	26
4	Ipswich	14	8	2	4	+10	26
5	Sheffield United	14	8	2	4	+10	26
6	Brentford	14	6	7	1	+9	25
7	Millwall	14	7	4	3	+8	25
8	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+6	24
9	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+5	23
10	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+11	22
11	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+8	22
12	QPR	13	6	4	3	+3	22
13	Nott'm Forest	13	7	0	6	+0	21
14	Fulham	12	5	5	2	+4	20
15	Preston	13	5	5	3	+3	20
16	Hull	14	4	5	5	+7	17
17	Sheffield Weds	13	4	5	4	+0	17
18	Norwich	13	4	5	4	+0	17
19	Bolton	13	5	2	6	-3	17
20	Birmingham	14	5	2	7	-8	17
21	Barnsley	14	3	5	6	-5	14
22	Reading	13	3	4	6	-3	13
23	Sunderland	13	1	5	7	-8	8
24	Burton Albion	14	2	2	10	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	14	9	3	2	+12	30
2	Derby	13	7	4	2	+8	25
3	Bristol City	13	6	5	2	+2	23
4	Fulham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
5	Preston	14	5	6	3	+1	21
6	Leeds	14	7	0	7	+0	21
7	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	-1	20
8	Norwich	14	6	2	6	-4	20
9	Middlesbrough	12	5	2	5	+4	17
10	Sheffield United	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Reading	14	4	4	6	-2	16
12	Burton Albion	13	4	4	5	-7	16
13	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+1	15
14	Brentford	13	4	3	6	-3	15
15	Sheffield Weds	14	3	5	6	-4	14
16	Sunderland	14	3	5	6	-10	14
17	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-5	13
18	Ipswich	13	4	1	8	-9	13
19	Nott'm Forest	13	3	2	8	-9	11
20	QPR	14	2	5	7	-9	11
21	Hull	13	1	5	7	-12	8
22	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8
23	Millwall	13	0	6	7	-9	6
24	Birmingham	13	1	3	9	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.