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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Leverkusen

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

St Pauli

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

75%

42%

Both score Ø 59%

92%

25%

Average goals

3,9

2,1

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,92 xG 1,42

63% Possession 37%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 3. · St Pauli 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	3	0	+29	+21.3	30
2	Ein Frankfurt	12	8	2	2	+15	+4.0	26
3	Leverkusen	12	6	5	1	+9	+10.9	23
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.1	21
5	Dortmund	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.0	20
6	Stuttgart	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.6	20
7	Freiburg	12	6	2	4	+0	+5.1	20
8	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.4	19
9	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+6	-0.8	18
10	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	+1	+2.1	17
11	Union Berlin	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.2	16
12	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-5	-0.4	16
13	Augsburg	12	4	3	5	-9	-3.3	15
14	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-7	-9.8	12
15	St Pauli	12	3	2	7	-5	-6.4	11
16	Heidenheim	12	3	1	8	-9	-1.1	10
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	2	9	-18	-9.8	5
18	Bochum	12	0	2	10	-23	-14.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+12	+7.0	19
2	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+7	+9.5	14
3	Augsburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.8	14
4	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	+10.4	13
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	1	0	+10	+3.7	13
6	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+4	+4.7	13
7	M'gladbach	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.2	12
8	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+7.9	11
9	RB Leipzig	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.1	11
10	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.6	11
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	-2	-3.0	9
12	Mainz	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
13	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-5	-2.0	6
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
15	St Pauli	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
16	Heidenheim	6	1	1	4	-6	+1.1	4
17	Holstein Kiel	6	1	0	5	-13	-5.9	3
18	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+10.8	17
2	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+9	+0.3	13
3	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.3	13
4	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+5	+3.0	12
5	Mainz	5	3	2	0	+7	-1.6	11
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+2	-2.3	10
7	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.6	10
8	Freiburg	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.4	7
9	St Pauli	6	2	0	4	-1	-6.0	6
10	Heidenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	Stuttgart	6	1	3	2	-4	-5.0	6
12	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.1	5
13	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.8	5
14	Hoffenheim	6	0	3	3	-5	-6.8	3
15	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.9	2
16	Dortmund	5	0	1	4	-8	-4.0	1
17	Augsburg	5	0	1	4	-13	-9.1	1
18	Bochum	7	0	0	7	-14	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.