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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Jarzebak

Widzew Lodz

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Stal Mielec

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Widzew Lodz Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

35%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,47 xG 2,21

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 10

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Widzew Lodz 10. · Stal Mielec 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	18	12	2	4	+19	+11.1	38
2	Rakow	17	10	5	2	+14	+9.8	35
3	Jagiellonia	17	10	4	3	+7	-0.9	34
4	Cracovia	17	9	3	5	+8	+0.0	30
5	Gornik Zabrze	18	9	3	6	+6	+4.4	30
6	Legia	17	8	5	4	+10	+8.6	29
7	Motor Lublin	17	8	3	6	-3	-1.0	27
8	Pogon Szczecin	17	8	2	7	+4	+6.6	26
9	GKS Katowice	18	6	5	7	+2	+0.2	23
10	Widzew Lodz	17	6	4	7	-2	-1.9	22
11	Piast Gliwice	17	5	6	6	+0	-3.2	21
12	Stal Mielec	17	5	4	8	-4	+4.5	19
13	Zaglebie	17	5	4	8	-8	-5.0	19
14	Radomiak Radom	17	5	2	10	-4	-1.5	17
15	Puszcza	17	4	5	8	-9	-11.2	17
16	Korona Kielce	17	4	5	8	-12	-2.4	17
17	Lechia Gdansk	18	3	5	10	-15	-16.1	14
18	Slask Wroclaw	17	1	7	9	-13	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	9	8	0	1	+17	+9.5	24
2	Pogon Szczecin	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.3	22
3	Legia	9	6	1	2	+11	+6.9	19
4	Jagiellonia	9	5	3	1	+6	+3.4	18
5	Gornik Zabrze	9	5	1	3	+4	+5.5	16
6	Stal Mielec	9	4	3	2	+3	+8.0	15
7	Rakow	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.4	14
8	Motor Lublin	9	4	2	3	+0	-0.4	14
9	Zaglebie	8	4	1	3	+2	-1.4	13
10	Widzew Lodz	8	4	1	3	+1	+0.1	13
11	GKS Katowice	9	3	3	3	+3	-2.5	12
12	Cracovia	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.2	12
13	Puszcza	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.9	12
14	Radomiak Radom	9	3	2	4	+2	+3.0	11
15	Piast Gliwice	8	2	4	2	+1	-1.9	10
16	Lechia Gdansk	9	2	2	5	-7	-9.6	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	8	1	4	3	-3	+0.9	7
18	Korona Kielce	8	2	1	5	-5	+2.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	9	6	3	0	+8	+4.4	21
2	Cracovia	8	6	0	2	+7	-0.2	18
3	Jagiellonia	8	5	1	2	+1	-4.3	16
4	Gornik Zabrze	9	4	2	3	+2	-1.2	14
5	Lech Poznan	9	4	2	3	+2	+1.6	14
6	Motor Lublin	8	4	1	3	-3	-0.6	13
7	GKS Katowice	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.7	11
8	Piast Gliwice	9	3	2	4	-1	-1.3	11
9	Legia	8	2	4	2	-1	+1.7	10
10	Korona Kielce	9	2	4	3	-7	-4.8	10
11	Widzew Lodz	9	2	3	4	-3	-2.0	9
12	Radomiak Radom	8	2	0	6	-6	-4.5	6
13	Lechia Gdansk	9	1	3	5	-8	-6.5	6
14	Zaglebie	9	1	3	5	-10	-3.5	6
15	Puszcza	9	1	2	6	-9	-8.3	5
16	Pogon Szczecin	8	1	1	6	-6	-1.7	4
17	Stal Mielec	8	1	1	6	-7	-3.4	4
18	Slask Wroclaw	9	0	3	6	-10	-3.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.