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Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Holstein Kiel

S U T T U

1–2

Full-time

St Pauli

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 20%

14%

25%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

75%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

2,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,50 xG 1,22

52% Possession 48%

6 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · St Pauli 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	21	5	2	+54	+49.5	68
2	Leverkusen	28	18	8	2	+29	+22.9	62
3	Ein Frankfurt	28	14	6	8	+13	+11.0	48
4	RB Leipzig	29	13	9	7	+10	-5.6	48
5	Mainz	28	13	7	8	+14	-1.2	46
6	M'gladbach	28	13	5	10	+4	-6.6	44
7	Freiburg	28	12	6	10	-6	-0.6	42
8	Dortmund	28	12	5	11	+9	+16.6	41
9	Stuttgart	28	11	7	10	+7	+7.8	40
10	Werder Bremen	28	11	6	11	-8	-0.5	39
11	Augsburg	28	10	9	9	-8	-11.4	39
12	Wolfsburg	29	10	8	11	+6	-0.9	38
13	Union Berlin	28	9	7	12	-12	-9.0	34
14	Hoffenheim	28	6	9	13	-18	-14.2	27
15	St Pauli	28	7	5	16	-11	-8.0	26
16	Heidenheim	28	6	4	18	-21	-9.8	22
17	Holstein Kiel	28	4	6	18	-29	-17.5	18
18	Bochum	28	4	6	18	-33	-22.7	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+32	+32.9	37
2	Leverkusen	14	9	3	2	+14	+15.3	30
3	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.7	28
4	Dortmund	14	8	3	3	+17	+14.4	27
5	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+12	+13.6	27
6	Freiburg	14	8	2	4	+7	+2.0	26
7	Mainz	14	6	5	3	+6	+4.0	23
8	M'gladbach	14	7	2	5	+5	+0.6	23
9	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+1	+1.8	22
10	Stuttgart	14	6	2	6	+6	+10.4	20
11	Union Berlin	14	5	5	4	+0	+1.7	20
12	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-6	+2.1	16
13	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
14	Hoffenheim	14	3	5	6	-8	-2.8	14
15	St Pauli	14	3	4	7	-6	+1.3	13
16	Bochum	14	3	3	8	-13	-5.8	12
17	Holstein Kiel	14	3	2	9	-16	-7.5	11
18	Heidenheim	14	3	1	10	-13	-4.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	9	5	0	+15	+7.6	32
2	Bayern Munich	14	9	4	1	+22	+16.6	31
3	Mainz	14	7	2	5	+8	-5.1	23
4	Wolfsburg	14	7	2	5	+8	-2.4	23
5	Werder Bremen	14	7	2	5	-2	-2.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	3	5	+1	-2.7	21
7	M'gladbach	14	6	3	5	-1	-7.2	21
8	Stuttgart	14	5	5	4	+1	-2.7	20
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	14	4	5	5	-9	-13.2	17
11	Freiburg	14	4	4	6	-13	-2.5	16
12	Dortmund	14	4	2	8	-8	+2.2	14
13	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-10.6	14
14	St Pauli	14	4	1	9	-5	-9.3	13
15	Hoffenheim	14	3	4	7	-10	-11.4	13
16	Heidenheim	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.6	12
17	Holstein Kiel	14	1	4	9	-13	-9.9	7
18	Bochum	14	1	3	10	-20	-16.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.