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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Nogueira

Gil Vicente

U U U U U

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 33%

41%

24%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

24%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

35%

65%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,43 xG 1,55

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 4. · Nacional 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	16	1	0	+32	+23.0	49
2	Sp Lisbon	18	14	3	1	+41	+30.5	45
3	Benfica	17	11	6	0	+25	+18.5	39
4	Gil Vicente	17	7	7	3	+10	+4.9	28
5	Sp Braga	17	7	6	4	+13	+13.4	27
6	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	+0	-4.9	27
7	Guimaraes	17	7	4	6	-4	-3.8	25
8	Famalicao	17	6	5	6	+6	+6.6	23
9	Estoril	17	5	5	7	-1	-4.8	20
10	Rio Ave	17	4	8	5	-7	-12.0	20
11	Alverca	17	6	2	9	-10	-1.3	20
12	Estrela	17	4	7	6	-4	-5.4	19
13	Nacional	17	4	5	8	-5	-7.6	17
14	Santa Clara	17	4	5	8	-5	+2.2	17
15	Casa Pia	18	3	5	10	-18	-16.8	14
16	Arouca	17	3	5	9	-24	-19.0	14
17	Tondela	17	3	3	11	-17	-6.4	12
18	AVS	17	0	4	13	-32	-17.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+27	+18.7	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
3	Benfica	9	5	4	0	+12	+12.8	19
4	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+2	-1.7	16
5	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+5	-0.4	15
6	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	+1	-2.0	15
7	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
8	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	+4	+3.2	14
9	Alverca	9	4	1	4	-6	+3.1	13
10	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
11	Santa Clara	9	3	2	4	+0	+4.0	11
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	+1	+2.5	10
13	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-3	-3.3	9
14	Arouca	9	2	3	4	-9	-8.0	9
15	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.6	7
16	Tondela	8	1	2	5	-6	-3.2	5
17	Casa Pia	8	0	4	4	-8	-8.0	4
18	AVS	9	0	3	6	-11	-6.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	9	9	0	0	+18	+10.9	27
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+14	+11.8	23
3	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+13	+5.7	20
4	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
5	Sp Braga	9	3	4	2	+6	+6.4	13
6	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.0	12
7	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-2	-3.2	11
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-4	-8.7	11
9	Nacional	9	2	4	3	+0	-3.0	10
10	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-5	-1.7	10
11	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
13	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
14	Tondela	9	2	1	6	-11	-3.1	7
15	Santa Clara	8	1	3	4	-5	-1.7	6
16	Estoril	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.4	5
17	Arouca	8	1	2	5	-15	-11.1	5
18	AVS	8	0	1	7	-21	-10.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.