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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

RB Leipzig

T S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 37%

58%

16%

Points per game

1,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

58%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,74 xG 2,33

70% Possession 30%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	16	2	1	+56	+39.2	50
2	Dortmund	19	12	6	1	+21	+13.9	42
3	Hoffenheim	19	12	3	4	+18	+3.0	39
4	RB Leipzig	19	11	3	5	+12	+7.7	36
5	Stuttgart	19	11	3	5	+10	+4.4	36
6	Leverkusen	18	10	2	6	+10	+10.4	32
7	Freiburg	19	7	6	6	-1	+5.3	27
8	Ein Frankfurt	19	7	6	6	-3	-1.6	27
9	Union Berlin	19	6	6	7	-6	-0.1	24
10	FC Koln	20	6	5	9	-3	-3.1	23
11	M'gladbach	19	5	5	9	-9	-4.6	20
12	Wolfsburg	20	5	4	11	-14	-9.5	19
13	Augsburg	19	5	4	10	-14	-12.5	19
14	Hamburg	18	4	6	8	-10	-5.4	18
15	Werder Bremen	19	4	6	9	-16	-10.0	18
16	Mainz	19	3	6	10	-11	-10.9	15
17	St Pauli	19	3	5	11	-15	-14.3	14
18	Heidenheim	19	3	4	12	-25	-11.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+31	+19.2	25
2	Dortmund	9	7	2	0	+13	+10.2	23
3	RB Leipzig	9	7	0	2	+11	+6.5	21
4	Stuttgart	9	6	2	1	+2	+1.6	20
5	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
6	Hoffenheim	9	6	0	3	+9	+3.2	18
7	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+7	+9.9	18
8	Hamburg	9	4	3	2	+4	+2.2	15
9	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+3	+2.9	14
10	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.6	14
11	Union Berlin	10	3	4	3	-1	+1.7	13
12	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-6	-6.8	12
13	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-6	+2.8	12
14	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
15	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
16	St Pauli	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.9	9
17	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.2	9
18	Heidenheim	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+25	+20.1	25
2	Hoffenheim	10	6	3	1	+9	-0.2	21
3	Dortmund	10	5	4	1	+8	+3.6	19
4	Stuttgart	10	5	1	4	+8	+2.8	16
5	RB Leipzig	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.2	15
6	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+0	-0.9	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	-4	-4.2	13
8	M'gladbach	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.4	11
9	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-5	-1.9	11
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	1	6	-9	-6.3	10
11	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.0	9
12	Freiburg	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.6	9
13	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.7	7
14	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-8	-11.3	6
15	Werder Bremen	10	1	3	6	-10	-12.8	6
16	St Pauli	10	1	2	7	-8	-11.4	5
17	Heidenheim	9	1	1	7	-13	-4.2	4
18	Hamburg	9	0	3	6	-14	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.