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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Union Berlin

S S U U U

0–3

Full-time

Dortmund

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

33%

61%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 56%

61%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,24 xG 1,84

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 9. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	16	2	1	+56	+39.2	50
2	Dortmund	18	11	6	1	+18	+13.3	39
3	Hoffenheim	18	11	3	4	+16	+4.2	36
4	RB Leipzig	18	11	2	5	+12	+8.2	35
5	Stuttgart	18	10	3	5	+7	+4.0	33
6	Leverkusen	18	10	2	6	+10	+10.4	32
7	Ein Frankfurt	19	7	6	6	-3	-1.6	27
8	Freiburg	18	6	6	6	-2	+4.5	24
9	Union Berlin	18	6	6	6	-3	+0.5	24
10	FC Koln	18	5	5	8	-3	-2.3	20
11	M'gladbach	18	5	5	8	-6	-4.2	20
12	Wolfsburg	19	5	4	10	-13	-9.3	19
13	Augsburg	19	5	4	10	-14	-12.5	19
14	Hamburg	18	4	6	8	-10	-5.4	18
15	Werder Bremen	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.2	18
16	Mainz	19	3	6	10	-11	-10.9	15
17	St Pauli	18	3	4	11	-15	-14.7	13
18	Heidenheim	19	3	4	12	-25	-11.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+31	+19.2	25
2	Dortmund	9	7	2	0	+13	+10.2	23
3	RB Leipzig	9	7	0	2	+11	+6.5	21
4	Stuttgart	9	6	2	1	+2	+1.6	20
5	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
6	Hoffenheim	9	6	0	3	+9	+3.2	18
7	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
8	Hamburg	9	4	3	2	+4	+2.2	15
9	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.6	14
10	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
11	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-4	+1.6	12
12	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-6	-6.8	12
13	FC Koln	9	3	2	4	+2	+2.7	11
14	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
15	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
16	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
17	Heidenheim	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.7	9
18	St Pauli	8	2	2	4	-7	-3.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+25	+20.1	25
2	Hoffenheim	9	5	3	1	+7	+1.0	18
3	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
4	RB Leipzig	9	4	2	3	+1	+1.6	14
5	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
6	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+0	-0.9	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	-4	-4.2	13
8	M'gladbach	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.4	11
9	Union Berlin	9	3	2	4	-5	-1.9	11
10	Wolfsburg	9	3	1	5	-8	-6.2	10
11	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
12	Freiburg	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.6	9
13	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.7	7
14	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-8	-11.3	6
15	Werder Bremen	10	1	3	6	-10	-12.8	6
16	St Pauli	10	1	2	7	-8	-11.4	5
17	Heidenheim	9	1	1	7	-13	-4.2	4
18	Hamburg	9	0	3	6	-14	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.