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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Brest

T T S T U

3–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

54%

64%

Both score Ø 59%

61%

57%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,52 xG 1,54

41% Possession 59%

17 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brest 17. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	21	3	4	+40	+5.2	66
2	Lens	29	17	9	3	+27	+5.7	60
3	Marseille	29	18	6	5	+25	+2.0	60
4	Monaco	28	16	6	6	+20	+4.0	54
5	Lille	29	15	7	7	+17	+8.1	52
6	Rennes	29	15	5	9	+17	-1.3	50
7	Nice	28	11	11	6	+12	+2.6	44
8	Lorient	29	12	8	9	+2	-3.3	44
9	Reims	28	10	13	5	+8	+9.4	43
10	Lyon	28	11	8	9	+11	+0.7	41
11	Montpellier	29	11	4	14	-3	+0.8	37
12	Toulouse	28	10	5	13	-5	+1.1	35
13	Clermont	28	9	7	12	-13	-5.9	34
14	Nantes	28	6	12	10	-7	-1.9	30
15	Strasbourg	28	5	11	12	-12	-0.2	26
16	Auxerre	29	6	8	15	-27	-0.1	26
17	Brest	28	5	9	14	-16	-7.5	24
18	Troyes	29	4	9	16	-24	-11.4	21
19	Ajaccio	28	6	3	19	-30	-0.6	21
20	Angers	28	2	4	22	-42	-7.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	1	1	+19	+1.0	37
2	Paris SG	14	11	2	1	+17	+1.0	35
3	Rennes	15	11	0	4	+18	+0.7	33
4	Lille	15	9	4	2	+9	+6.8	31
5	Reims	14	7	4	3	+8	+7.5	25
6	Marseille	15	7	4	4	+7	+0.6	25
7	Lorient	14	7	3	4	+6	+3.7	24
8	Lyon	14	6	5	3	+9	+3.2	23
9	Monaco	14	7	2	5	+6	-0.4	23
10	Toulouse	15	6	4	5	+2	+3.6	22
11	Nice	14	5	6	3	+6	+1.1	21
12	Montpellier	15	6	2	7	+1	+0.1	20
13	Nantes	13	4	6	3	+1	+1.5	18
14	Auxerre	14	4	5	5	-8	+1.9	17
15	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-4	+2.7	15
16	Clermont	14	4	3	7	-14	-2.7	15
17	Troyes	14	1	9	4	-6	-5.5	12
18	Brest	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.7	11
19	Ajaccio	14	3	1	10	-13	+0.7	10
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-16	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	14	11	2	1	+18	+1.5	35
2	Paris SG	14	10	1	3	+23	+4.1	31
3	Monaco	14	9	4	1	+14	+4.4	31
4	Lens	15	5	8	2	+8	+4.7	23
5	Nice	14	6	5	3	+6	+1.5	23
6	Lille	14	6	3	5	+8	+1.3	21
7	Lorient	15	5	5	5	-4	-7.0	20
8	Clermont	14	5	4	5	+1	-3.2	19
9	Lyon	14	5	3	6	+2	-2.5	18
10	Reims	14	3	9	2	+0	+1.9	18
11	Rennes	14	4	5	5	-1	-2.1	17
12	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.7	17
13	Toulouse	13	4	1	8	-7	-2.5	13
14	Brest	15	3	4	8	-8	-4.8	13
15	Nantes	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.4	12
16	Strasbourg	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.9	11
17	Ajaccio	14	3	2	9	-17	-1.3	11
18	Troyes	15	3	0	12	-18	-5.9	9
19	Auxerre	15	2	3	10	-19	-2.0	9
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-26	-4.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.