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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Spezia

U T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Salernitana

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

19%

22%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

54%

59%

Both score Ø 49%

46%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,96 xG 1,09

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Salernitana 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	27	23	2	2	+48	+9.1	71
2	Juventus	28	18	5	5	+24	+6.0	59
3	Lazio	27	15	7	5	+23	+2.4	52
4	Inter	28	16	2	10	+15	+11.2	50
5	Atalanta	28	14	6	8	+15	+4.4	48
6	Milan	27	14	6	7	+8	+0.1	48
7	Roma	27	14	5	8	+9	+1.1	47
8	Fiorentina	28	11	7	10	+2	+2.8	40
9	Bologna	28	11	7	10	+0	-1.4	40
10	Udinese	28	9	11	8	+3	-1.5	38
11	Torino	27	10	7	10	-4	+0.6	37
12	Sassuolo	27	10	6	11	-5	+2.9	36
13	Monza	27	9	7	11	-5	-1.1	34
14	Empoli	27	6	10	11	-12	-6.1	28
15	Lecce	27	6	9	12	-8	-1.4	27
16	Salernitana	27	6	9	12	-16	-5.5	27
17	Spezia	26	5	8	13	-20	-7.6	23
18	Verona	27	4	6	17	-20	-3.2	18
19	Sampdoria	27	3	6	18	-28	-5.4	15
20	Cremonese	28	1	10	17	-29	-7.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
3	Inter	15	11	0	4	+19	+5.9	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+11	+0.9	27
6	Bologna	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.1	26
7	Roma	13	8	1	4	+8	-2.3	25
8	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+0	+4.1	22
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	13	6	2	5	+2	+1.0	20
11	Udinese	13	4	7	2	+7	+2.5	19
12	Monza	14	5	4	5	+3	+0.2	19
13	Torino	13	5	4	4	-1	+2.2	19
14	Salernitana	14	4	4	6	-1	-3.6	16
15	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
16	Spezia	13	3	6	4	-5	-5.2	15
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	14	1	3	10	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	1	1	+24	+5.5	37
2	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
3	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	+1.5	25
4	Juventus	13	7	2	4	+2	+0.8	23
5	Roma	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.4	22
6	Milan	14	5	4	5	-3	-2.8	19
7	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.0	19
8	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
9	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
10	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
11	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
12	Lecce	14	4	3	7	-4	-0.8	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.4	12
16	Salernitana	13	2	5	6	-15	-2.0	11
17	Sampdoria	13	2	2	9	-15	-5.1	8
18	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	13	0	4	9	-13	-2.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.