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La Liga
Referee: Alberto Undiano
Villarreal
T U U U T
1–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,2
This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 19%
16%
21%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
53%
42%
Both score Ø 61%
58%
63%
Average goals
2,4
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
3 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 19. · Ath Bilbao 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 19 13 4 2 +33 43
2 Ath Madrid 20 11 8 1 +17 41
3 Real Madrid 20 11 3 6 +6 36
4 Sevilla 20 9 6 5 +9 33
5 Alaves 20 9 5 6 -1 32
6 Getafe 20 8 7 5 +9 31
7 Betis 20 8 5 7 +0 29
8 Valencia 20 5 11 4 +1 26
9 Sociedad 19 7 4 8 +1 25
10 Girona 20 5 9 6 -3 24
11 Espanol 19 7 3 9 -6 24
12 Levante 19 6 5 8 -5 23
13 Leganes 19 5 7 7 -4 22
14 Valladolid 19 5 7 7 -4 22
15 Ath Bilbao 19 4 10 5 -5 22
16 Eibar 19 5 7 7 -7 22
17 Celta 20 5 6 9 -2 21
18 Vallecano 19 5 4 10 -12 19
19 Villarreal 19 3 8 8 -5 17
20 Huesca 20 2 5 13 -22 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Ath Bilbao
18′
Jaume Costa 1–0
own goal
Ramiro Funes Mori 🟨
37′
40′
🟨 Beñat Etxebarria
Half-time 1–0
Vicente Iborra 🟨
54′
Mario Gaspar 🟨
57′
Alfonso Pedraza 🔁
↦ Jaume Costa
58′
S. Chukwueze 🔁
↦ Pablo Fornals
58′
Álvaro González 🟨
62′
C. Bacca 🔁
↦ Gerard Moreno
66′
2–0 K. Toko Ekambi
Alfonso Pedraza
71′
73′
🔁 San José
↦ Beñat
76′
🔁 De Marcos
↦ Ibai Gómez
92′
🔁 Gorka Guruzeta
↦ Iñaki Williams
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-2-3-1
1 Sergio Asenjo G
2 Mario Gaspar D
11 Jaume Costa D
4 Ramiro Funes Mori D
3 Álvaro González D
19 Santi Cazorla M
10 Vicente Iborra M
14 Trigueros M
8 Pablo Fornals M
7 Gerard Moreno F
17 K. Toko Ekambi F
Bench (7)
16 Alfonso Pedraza
30 S. Chukwueze
9 C. Bacca
5 S. Cáseres
6 Víctor Ruíz
13 Andrés Fernández
15 Miguelón Llambrich

Coach: Luis García

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Iago Herrerín G
12 Yuri D
4 Íñigo Martínez D
21 Ander Capa D
5 Yeray Álvarez D
7 Beñat M
19 Ibai Gómez M
16 Dani García M
11 Iñigo Córdoba M
10 Muniain F
9 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (7)
6 San José
18 De Marcos
30 Gorka Guruzeta
3 Unai Núñez
14 Susaeta
24 Balenziaga
25 Unai Simón

Coach: Gaizka Garitano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Alberto Undiano · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.