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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Villarreal

T T S S T

1–3

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

47%

27%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

47%

27%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 13

2 Blocked shots 2

10 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Ath Bilbao 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	24	7	0	+63	79
2	Ath Madrid	31	20	8	3	+36	68
3	Valencia	31	20	5	6	+28	65
4	Real Madrid	31	19	7	5	+43	64
5	Betis	31	15	4	12	-1	49
6	Villarreal	30	14	5	11	+6	47
7	Sevilla	31	14	4	13	-11	46
8	Girona	31	12	8	11	-4	44
9	Celta	31	12	7	12	+7	43
10	Eibar	31	11	7	13	-9	40
11	Getafe	31	10	9	12	+5	39
12	Sociedad	31	10	7	14	+4	37
13	Ath Bilbao	30	8	12	10	-4	36
14	Espanol	31	8	12	11	-12	36
15	Leganes	31	10	6	15	-13	36
16	Alaves	31	11	2	18	-17	35
17	Levante	31	6	13	12	-17	31
18	La Coruna	31	5	8	18	-34	23
19	Las Palmas	31	5	6	20	-41	21
20	Malaga	31	4	5	22	-29	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	13	2	0	+36	41
2	Valencia	16	12	2	2	+20	38
3	Ath Madrid	15	11	4	0	+21	37
4	Real Madrid	16	10	3	3	+27	33
5	Sevilla	15	8	4	3	+6	28
6	Getafe	16	8	3	5	+13	27
7	Girona	15	8	3	4	+11	27
8	Betis	16	8	3	5	+2	27
9	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+10	26
10	Celta	15	7	5	3	+9	26
11	Espanol	16	7	5	4	+2	26
12	Eibar	16	7	4	5	+8	25
13	Alaves	16	8	1	7	-2	25
14	Sociedad	16	7	3	6	+12	24
15	Leganes	15	7	3	5	+1	24
16	Ath Bilbao	15	5	8	2	+5	23
17	Levante	16	4	6	6	-6	18
18	La Coruna	16	4	5	7	-7	17
19	Las Palmas	15	4	2	9	-16	14
20	Malaga	15	3	3	9	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	5	0	+27	38
2	Real Madrid	15	9	4	2	+16	31
3	Ath Madrid	16	9	4	3	+15	31
4	Valencia	15	8	3	4	+8	27
5	Betis	15	7	1	7	-3	22
6	Villarreal	16	6	3	7	-4	21
7	Sevilla	16	6	0	10	-17	18
8	Celta	16	5	2	9	-2	17
9	Girona	16	4	5	7	-15	17
10	Eibar	15	4	3	8	-17	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	4	8	-8	13
12	Ath Bilbao	15	3	4	8	-9	13
13	Levante	15	2	7	6	-11	13
14	Getafe	15	2	6	7	-8	12
15	Leganes	16	3	3	10	-14	12
16	Espanol	15	1	7	7	-14	10
17	Alaves	15	3	1	11	-15	10
18	Las Palmas	16	1	4	11	-25	7
19	La Coruna	15	1	3	11	-27	6
20	Malaga	16	1	2	13	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.