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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Real Madrid

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 58%

69%

47%

Points per game

2,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

47%

67%

Both score Ø 55%

42%

67%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	36	25	8	3	+44	83
2	Barcelona	36	24	7	5	+44	79
3	Ath Madrid	36	17	15	4	+22	66
4	Sevilla	36	18	12	6	+19	66
5	Villarreal	36	17	6	13	+11	57
6	Getafe	36	14	12	10	+9	54
7	Sociedad	36	16	6	14	+8	54
8	Ath Bilbao	36	13	12	11	+9	51
9	Granada	36	14	8	14	+2	50
10	Valencia	36	13	11	12	-7	50
11	Osasuna	36	12	12	12	-9	48
12	Levante	36	12	7	17	-8	43
13	Eibar	37	11	9	17	-13	42
14	Betis	36	10	11	15	-9	41
15	Valladolid	37	8	15	14	-13	39
16	Celta	36	7	15	14	-11	36
17	Alaves	36	9	9	18	-21	36
18	Leganes	36	7	11	18	-23	32
19	Mallorca	36	9	5	22	-24	32
20	Espanol	36	5	9	22	-30	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Real Madrid	18	14	4	0	+28	46
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	5	1	+17	41
4	Valencia	18	10	7	1	+12	37
5	Sevilla	18	9	7	2	+11	34
6	Ath Bilbao	18	9	4	5	+9	31
7	Betis	18	9	4	5	+8	31
8	Sociedad	18	9	3	6	+13	30
9	Getafe	18	8	6	4	+7	30
10	Granada	18	9	3	6	+6	30
11	Villarreal	18	8	5	5	+8	29
12	Levante	18	8	5	5	+7	29
13	Alaves	18	7	6	5	+6	27
14	Mallorca	18	8	3	7	+4	27
15	Eibar	19	8	3	8	+0	27
16	Osasuna	18	7	6	5	-3	27
17	Celta	18	5	8	5	+3	23
18	Valladolid	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Leganes	18	5	4	9	-9	19
20	Espanol	18	2	5	11	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	11	4	3	+16	37
2	Sevilla	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Barcelona	18	8	5	5	+7	29
4	Villarreal	18	9	1	8	+3	28
5	Ath Madrid	18	5	10	3	+5	25
6	Getafe	18	6	6	6	+2	24
7	Sociedad	18	7	3	8	-5	24
8	Osasuna	18	5	6	7	-6	21
9	Ath Bilbao	18	4	8	6	+0	20
10	Granada	18	5	5	8	-4	20
11	Valladolid	19	4	5	10	-14	17
12	Eibar	18	3	6	9	-13	15
13	Levante	18	4	2	12	-15	14
14	Celta	18	2	7	9	-14	13
15	Espanol	18	3	4	11	-14	13
16	Leganes	18	2	7	9	-14	13
17	Valencia	18	3	4	11	-19	13
18	Betis	18	1	7	10	-17	10
19	Alaves	18	2	3	13	-27	9
20	Mallorca	18	1	2	15	-28	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.