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La Liga
Referee: José González
Ath Bilbao
U S T S S
0–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,7
This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 52%
36%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
27%
48%
Both score Ø 44%
45%
42%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%
7 Shots 10
1 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 2
3 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 8
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Real Madrid 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 33 22 8 3 +40 74
2 Barcelona 33 21 7 5 +39 70
3 Ath Madrid 34 16 14 4 +21 62
4 Sevilla 33 15 12 6 +15 57
5 Villarreal 33 16 6 11 +13 54
6 Getafe 33 14 10 9 +11 52
7 Sociedad 33 15 5 13 +8 50
8 Ath Bilbao 33 12 12 9 +10 48
9 Granada 34 13 8 13 +2 47
10 Valencia 34 12 11 11 -7 47
11 Osasuna 33 11 11 11 -7 44
12 Levante 33 12 6 15 -5 42
13 Valladolid 34 8 15 11 -9 39
14 Betis 34 9 11 14 -11 38
15 Celta 34 7 14 13 -10 35
16 Eibar 33 9 8 16 -16 35
17 Alaves 34 9 8 17 -19 35
18 Mallorca 34 8 5 21 -24 29
19 Leganes 33 5 10 18 -25 25
20 Espanol 33 5 9 19 -26 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid
Y. Alvarez 🔁
↦ U. Nunez
21′
R. Garcia 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
U. Lopez 🔁
↦ M. Vesga
63′
I. Cordoba 🔁
↦ O. de Marcos
63′
73′
S. Ramos 0–1
D. Garcia 🟨
73′
74′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ Lucas
74′
🔁 M. Asensio
↦ Junior Vinicius
D. Garcia 🔁
↦ O. Sancet
78′
I. Williams 🔁
↦ A. Villalibre
78′
85′
🔁 F. Valverde
↦ T. Kroos
91′
🟨 S. Ramos
93′
🟨 Casemiro
93′
🔁 K. Benzema
↦ L. Jovic
I. Muniain 🟨
95′
Y. Berchiche 🟨
96′
96′
🟨 D. Carvajal
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Unai Simón G
21 Ander Capa D
5 Yeray Álvarez D
4 Iñigo Martínez D
17 Yuri Berchiche D
8 Unai Lopez M
14 Dani García M
10 Iker Muniain M
22 Raúl García M
11 Inigo Cordoba M
9 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (12)
13 Iago Herrerín
3 Unai Núñez
15 Íñigo Lekue
24 Mikel Balenziaga
18 Óscar de Marcos
12 Gaizka Larrazabal
6 Mikel San José
19 Ibai Gómez
16 Mikel Vesga
34 Oihan Sancet
23 Kenan Kodro
25 Asier Villalibre

Coach: Gaizka Garitano

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 Thibaut Courtois G
2 Daniel Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 Sergio Ramos D
12 Marcelo D
15 Federico Valverde M
14 Casemiro M
10 Luka Modrić M
27 Rodrygo F
9 Karim Benzema F
20 Marco Asensio F
Bench (12)
1 Alphonse Aréola
26 Diego Altube
39 Javier Hernandez
23 Ferland Mendy
8 Toni Kroos
17 Lucas Vázquez
22 Isco
18 Luka Jović
21 Brahim Díaz
25 Vinícius Júnior
24 Mariano Díaz
11 Gareth Bale

Coach: Z. Zidane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,12
U
3,74
B ✓
1,71
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,98
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

José González · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.