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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Real Madrid

S U S U T

3–2

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 42%

57%

26%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 53%

49%

57%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%

24 Shots 15

11 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Villarreal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	25	8	3	+52	83
2	Ath Madrid	36	22	8	6	+26	74
3	Real Madrid	35	20	5	10	+20	65
4	Getafe	36	15	13	8	+15	58
5	Sevilla	36	16	7	13	+13	55
6	Valencia	35	12	16	7	+8	52
7	Ath Bilbao	35	12	14	9	-3	50
8	Sociedad	36	12	11	13	-1	47
9	Espanol	36	12	11	13	-6	47
10	Alaves	36	12	11	13	-10	47
11	Eibar	36	11	13	12	-3	46
12	Leganes	36	11	12	13	-3	45
13	Betis	36	12	8	16	-11	44
14	Villarreal	35	9	13	13	-3	40
15	Celta	36	10	10	16	-7	40
16	Levante	36	10	10	16	-8	40
17	Girona	36	9	10	17	-14	37
18	Valladolid	35	8	11	16	-19	35
19	Vallecano	36	8	7	21	-28	31
20	Huesca	35	6	12	17	-18	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	15	2	1	+22	47
2	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+32	45
3	Real Madrid	17	12	1	4	+18	37
4	Sevilla	18	11	3	4	+17	36
5	Getafe	18	11	2	5	+15	35
6	Espanol	18	10	3	5	+4	33
7	Eibar	18	9	5	4	+10	32
8	Ath Bilbao	18	8	8	2	+5	32
9	Leganes	18	7	8	3	+5	29
10	Valencia	18	6	10	2	+10	28
11	Celta	18	8	4	6	+6	28
12	Alaves	18	6	8	4	-1	26
13	Betis	18	7	5	6	-2	26
14	Sociedad	18	6	6	6	+1	24
15	Levante	18	6	6	6	+0	24
16	Vallecano	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Villarreal	18	4	8	6	+1	20
18	Huesca	17	4	6	7	-3	18
19	Valladolid	17	4	5	8	-9	17
20	Girona	18	3	6	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+20	38
2	Real Madrid	18	8	4	6	+2	28
3	Ath Madrid	18	7	6	5	+4	27
4	Valencia	17	6	6	5	-2	24
5	Getafe	18	4	11	3	+0	23
6	Sociedad	18	6	5	7	-2	23
7	Girona	18	6	4	8	-4	22
8	Alaves	18	6	3	9	-9	21
9	Villarreal	17	5	5	7	-4	20
10	Sevilla	18	5	4	9	-4	19
11	Ath Bilbao	17	4	6	7	-8	18
12	Betis	18	5	3	10	-9	18
13	Valladolid	18	4	6	8	-10	18
14	Levante	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Leganes	18	4	4	10	-8	16
16	Espanol	18	2	8	8	-10	14
17	Eibar	18	2	8	8	-13	14
18	Celta	18	2	6	10	-13	12
19	Huesca	18	2	6	10	-15	12
20	Vallecano	18	3	1	14	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.