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La Liga

Referee: Antonio Mateu

Barcelona

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,8

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 48%

58%

37%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 4. · Ath Bilbao 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	19	16	2	1	+30	50
2	Real Madrid	20	12	4	4	+17	40
3	Sevilla	20	12	3	5	+12	39
4	Barcelona	19	11	4	4	+22	37
5	Villarreal	21	8	11	2	+9	35
6	Sociedad	21	8	8	5	+13	32
7	Granada	21	8	5	8	-10	29
8	Betis	20	8	3	9	-8	27
9	Levante	20	6	8	6	+0	26
10	Celta	21	6	7	8	-7	25
11	Ath Bilbao	19	7	3	9	+3	24
12	Getafe	20	6	6	8	-6	24
13	Cadiz	21	6	6	9	-12	24
14	Valencia	21	5	8	8	-2	23
15	Eibar	21	4	8	9	-6	20
16	Valladolid	21	4	8	9	-11	20
17	Osasuna	20	4	7	9	-10	19
18	Alaves	21	4	7	10	-11	19
19	Elche	19	3	8	8	-10	17
20	Huesca	21	2	10	9	-13	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+21	28
2	Villarreal	11	5	6	0	+7	21
3	Granada	11	6	3	2	+3	21
4	Sevilla	9	6	1	2	+8	19
5	Barcelona	9	5	3	1	+11	18
6	Ath Bilbao	10	6	0	4	+9	18
7	Real Madrid	9	6	0	3	+9	18
8	Levante	9	4	4	1	+4	16
9	Celta	10	5	1	4	-2	16
10	Getafe	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Sociedad	10	3	5	2	+5	14
12	Valencia	11	3	5	3	+2	14
13	Betis	9	4	2	3	+0	14
14	Osasuna	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Alaves	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Valladolid	11	2	4	5	-7	10
18	Huesca	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Elche	10	1	5	4	-7	8
20	Eibar	11	1	4	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	7	1	1	+9	22
2	Real Madrid	11	6	4	1	+8	22
3	Sevilla	11	6	2	3	+4	20
4	Barcelona	10	6	1	3	+11	19
5	Sociedad	11	5	3	3	+8	18
6	Villarreal	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Cadiz	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Eibar	10	3	4	3	+1	13
9	Betis	11	4	1	6	-8	13
10	Levante	11	2	4	5	-4	10
11	Valladolid	10	2	4	4	-4	10
12	Elche	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-4	9
14	Celta	11	1	6	4	-5	9
15	Alaves	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-7	9
17	Huesca	11	1	5	5	-8	8
18	Granada	10	2	2	6	-13	8
19	Osasuna	10	1	4	5	-7	7
20	Ath Bilbao	9	1	3	5	-6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.