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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Valencia

T T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 39%

28%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 46%

47%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,17 xG 0,66

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 17. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	26	4	3	+49	+15.6	82
2	Real Madrid	33	21	5	7	+37	+17.5	68
3	Ath Madrid	32	20	6	6	+30	+13.0	66
4	Sociedad	33	18	7	8	+14	+4.4	61
5	Villarreal	32	16	5	11	+13	+9.9	53
6	Betis	32	14	7	11	+2	+0.8	49
7	Ath Bilbao	32	13	8	11	+11	+3.2	47
8	Girona	32	12	8	12	+5	-3.8	44
9	Osasuna	33	12	8	13	-6	-11.5	44
10	Vallecano	32	11	10	11	-3	-4.6	43
11	Mallorca	32	11	8	13	-4	-3.9	41
12	Sevilla	32	11	8	13	-9	+3.7	41
13	Celta	32	10	9	13	-7	+0.4	39
14	Almeria	33	10	6	17	-16	-7.4	36
15	Cadiz	32	8	11	13	-19	-3.2	35
16	Valladolid	32	10	5	17	-26	-12.2	35
17	Valencia	32	9	6	17	-4	-2.7	33
18	Getafe	32	7	10	15	-13	-6.4	31
19	Espanol	32	7	10	15	-15	-5.3	31
20	Elche	33	3	7	23	-39	-7.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	3	0	+31	+11.6	45
2	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+26	+15.1	37
3	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+18	+10.8	33
4	Villarreal	16	10	2	4	+12	+9.4	32
5	Sociedad	16	9	4	3	+8	+6.0	31
6	Girona	16	9	3	4	+10	+2.4	30
7	Almeria	17	9	2	6	+4	+0.4	29
8	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
9	Vallecano	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.0	26
10	Mallorca	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.8	26
11	Osasuna	16	8	1	7	-2	-3.5	25
12	Ath Bilbao	16	7	3	6	+8	-0.5	24
13	Valencia	16	7	3	6	+7	+3.5	24
14	Valladolid	16	7	3	6	-3	-0.8	24
15	Celta	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.2	23
16	Sevilla	16	6	4	6	-1	+8.8	22
17	Cadiz	17	5	6	6	-7	-0.8	21
18	Getafe	16	5	5	6	-1	-1.6	20
19	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.4	17
20	Elche	16	2	4	10	-12	+2.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+18	+4.0	37
2	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+12	+2.2	33
3	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Ath Bilbao	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.7	23
6	Villarreal	16	6	3	7	+1	+0.5	21
7	Betis	16	6	3	7	-5	-0.3	21
8	Osasuna	17	4	7	6	-4	-8.1	19
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-8	-5.2	19
10	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-8	-3.6	17
11	Celta	16	4	4	8	-12	-2.8	16
12	Mallorca	16	4	3	9	-9	-5.6	15
13	Girona	16	3	5	8	-5	-6.2	14
14	Espanol	16	3	5	8	-9	-7.7	14
15	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-12	-2.4	14
16	Getafe	16	2	5	9	-12	-4.8	11
17	Valladolid	16	3	2	11	-23	-11.4	11
18	Valencia	16	2	3	11	-11	-6.2	9
19	Almeria	16	1	4	11	-20	-7.8	7
20	Elche	17	1	3	13	-27	-9.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.