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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos
Cadiz
T S T U T
2–1
Full-time
Valencia
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cadiz Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,5
2,5
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 26%
23%
29%
Points per game
1,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
29%
45%
Both score Ø 39%
32%
45%
Average goals
2,1
2,3
Scored
0,7
1,1
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,76 xG 1,27
40% Possession 60%
8 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 4
0 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 10
6 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cadiz 17. · Valencia 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 32 25 4 3 +48 +13.2 79
2 Real Madrid 32 21 5 6 +39 +18.6 68
3 Ath Madrid 31 19 6 6 +27 +12.8 63
4 Sociedad 32 17 7 8 +12 +3.3 58
5 Villarreal 31 15 5 11 +11 +8.4 50
6 Betis 32 14 7 11 +2 +0.8 49
7 Ath Bilbao 31 13 7 11 +11 +2.4 46
8 Osasuna 32 12 8 12 -5 -9.1 44
9 Vallecano 32 11 10 11 -3 -4.6 43
10 Girona 31 11 8 12 +3 -2.4 41
11 Sevilla 31 11 8 12 -7 +2.3 41
12 Mallorca 31 11 7 13 -4 -3.1 40
13 Celta 31 10 9 12 -5 +1.9 39
14 Valladolid 31 10 5 16 -23 -12.0 35
15 Valencia 31 9 6 16 -3 -2.2 33
16 Almeria 32 9 6 17 -17 -8.1 33
17 Cadiz 31 7 11 13 -20 -3.7 32
18 Getafe 31 7 10 14 -12 -4.4 31
19 Espanol 31 6 10 15 -16 -7.2 28
20 Elche 32 3 7 22 -38 -7.0 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cadiz Valencia
1–0 G. Escalante
Rubén Sobrino
39′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Sergi Guardiola
A. Espino
46′
51′
Samuel Lino 2–1
56′
🔁 Diego López
↦ Y. Musah
56′
🔁 Samu Castillejo
↦ E. Cömert
Jorge Meré 🔁
↦ Fali
58′
T. Bongonda 🔁
↦ Iván Alejo
59′
Fede San Emeterio 🟨
60′
Rubén Alcaraz 🔁
↦ Chris Ramos
67′
M. Mbaye 🔁
↦ Raúl Parra
67′
71′
🔁 Javi Guerra
↦ Nico González
71′
🔁 Thierry Correia
↦ D. Foulquier
A. Lozano 🔁
↦ Sergi Guardiola
72′
75′
🟨 Samu Castillejo
82′
🔁 E. Cavani
↦ Toni Lato
Rubén Sobrino 🟨
85′
85′
🟨 Ilaix Moriba
Anthony Lozano 🟨
89′
Jeremías Ledesma 🟨
90′
Luis Hernández 🟨
91′
Alfonso Espino 🟨
96′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Cadiz

4-4-2
1 J. Ledesma G
2 Raúl Parra D
23 Luis Hernández D
3 Fali D
22 A. Espino D
11 Iván Alejo M
17 G. Escalante M
24 Fede San Emeterio M
7 Rubén Sobrino M
19 Sergi Guardiola F
16 Chris Ramos F
Bench (11)
25 Jorge Meré
10 T. Bongonda
4 Rubén Alcaraz
5 M. Mbaye
9 A. Lozano
6 José Mari
13 David Gil
8 Álex Fernández
21 S. Arzamendia
18 Álvaro Negredo
12 Y. Diarra

Coach: Sergio

Valencia

5-4-1
25 G. Mamardashvili G
20 D. Foulquier D
24 E. Cömert D
12 M. Diakhaby D
15 C. Özkacar D
3 Toni Lato D
4 Y. Musah M
8 I. Moriba M
17 Nico González M
16 Samuel Lino M
19 Hugo Duro F
Bench (12)
40 Diego López
11 Samu Castillejo
36 Javi Guerra
2 Thierry Correia
7 E. Cavani
14 José Gayà
46 Alberto Marí
33 Cristhian Mosquera
21 Jesús Vázquez
5 Gabriel Paulista
1 Iago Herrerín
18 André Almeida

Coach: Rubén Baraja

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,02
U
3,19
B
2,49
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,30
U2,5
1,62
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.