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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Atalanta

S T U S S

3–2

Full-time

Spezia

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 33%

50%

16%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

47%

48%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,86 xG 1,00

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 7. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	32	25	4	3	+46	+10.5	79
2	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+26	+0.7	61
3	Juventus	32	18	6	8	+21	+6.7	60
4	Inter	32	18	3	11	+19	+16.9	57
5	Milan	32	16	9	7	+14	+3.4	57
6	Roma	32	17	6	9	+14	+6.2	57
7	Atalanta	32	16	7	9	+16	+3.1	55
8	Fiorentina	32	12	9	11	+6	+5.6	45
9	Bologna	32	12	9	11	+1	-3.0	45
10	Monza	32	12	8	12	-3	-2.8	44
11	Sassuolo	32	12	7	13	-7	+4.2	43
12	Udinese	32	10	12	10	+2	-2.8	42
13	Torino	32	11	9	12	-5	+1.1	42
14	Salernitana	32	7	13	12	-13	-10.0	34
15	Empoli	32	7	11	14	-16	-8.2	32
16	Lecce	32	7	10	15	-11	+0.8	31
17	Verona	31	6	8	17	-18	-4.0	26
18	Spezia	31	5	11	15	-25	-7.3	26
19	Cremonese	32	3	11	18	-30	-9.3	20
20	Sampdoria	32	3	8	21	-37	-11.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	16	11	3	2	+21	+4.3	36
2	Napoli	16	11	3	2	+20	+4.0	36
3	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
4	Milan	15	10	3	2	+13	+4.5	33
5	Roma	16	10	2	4	+14	+1.8	32
6	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+11	+0.3	30
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
9	Sassuolo	16	8	3	5	+4	+1.7	27
10	Atalanta	15	7	3	5	+8	+5.3	24
11	Udinese	15	5	8	2	+10	+3.8	23
12	Monza	16	6	4	6	+2	+1.3	22
13	Salernitana	16	5	5	6	+2	-4.7	20
14	Torino	16	5	5	6	-3	+2.1	20
15	Verona	16	6	2	8	-5	-1.7	20
16	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.4	19
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	16	2	4	10	-16	-4.2	10
20	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-14	-0.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	16	14	1	1	+26	+6.5	43
2	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+15	+0.5	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Roma	16	7	4	5	+0	+4.4	25
5	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
6	Juventus	16	7	3	6	+0	+2.5	24
7	Torino	16	6	4	6	-2	-1.0	22
8	Monza	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.1	22
9	Inter	15	6	3	6	-1	+7.4	21
10	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
11	Fiorentina	15	5	3	7	+1	-1.6	18
12	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-9	-2.5	17
13	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-11	+2.5	16
14	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-7	-1.8	15
15	Salernitana	16	2	8	6	-15	-5.2	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	16	1	7	8	-14	-5.1	10
18	Spezia	15	2	4	9	-15	-1.7	10
19	Sampdoria	16	2	3	11	-23	-11.2	9
20	Verona	15	0	6	9	-13	-2.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.