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La Liga

Referee: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes

Vallecano

T S T U T

1–0

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 40%

21%

59%

Points per game

0,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

59%

56%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

50%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 6

21 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 20. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	35	25	8	2	+54	83
2	Ath Madrid	35	22	8	5	+29	74
3	Real Madrid	34	20	5	9	+21	65
4	Sevilla	35	16	7	12	+16	55
5	Getafe	35	14	13	8	+13	55
6	Valencia	35	12	16	7	+8	52
7	Ath Bilbao	35	12	14	9	-3	50
8	Alaves	35	12	11	12	-9	47
9	Sociedad	35	11	11	13	-2	44
10	Eibar	35	10	13	12	-4	43
11	Espanol	34	11	10	13	-9	43
12	Betis	34	12	7	15	-10	43
13	Leganes	35	10	12	13	-6	42
14	Villarreal	35	9	13	13	-3	40
15	Celta	35	9	10	16	-9	37
16	Levante	35	9	10	16	-11	37
17	Girona	35	9	10	16	-12	37
18	Valladolid	35	8	11	16	-19	35
19	Huesca	35	6	12	17	-18	30
20	Vallecano	34	7	7	20	-26	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	15	2	1	+22	47
2	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+32	45
3	Real Madrid	17	12	1	4	+18	37
4	Sevilla	17	11	3	3	+20	36
5	Getafe	17	10	2	5	+13	32
6	Ath Bilbao	18	8	8	2	+5	32
7	Espanol	17	9	3	5	+1	30
8	Eibar	17	8	5	4	+9	29
9	Leganes	18	7	8	3	+5	29
10	Valencia	18	6	10	2	+10	28
11	Alaves	17	6	8	3	+0	26
12	Celta	17	7	4	6	+4	25
13	Betis	17	7	4	6	-2	25
14	Sociedad	18	6	6	6	+1	24
15	Levante	17	5	6	6	-3	21
16	Villarreal	18	4	8	6	+1	20
17	Huesca	17	4	6	7	-3	18
18	Vallecano	17	4	6	7	-7	18
19	Valladolid	17	4	5	8	-9	17
20	Girona	18	3	6	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	5	1	+22	38
2	Real Madrid	17	8	4	5	+3	28
3	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+7	27
4	Valencia	17	6	6	5	-2	24
5	Getafe	18	4	11	3	+0	23
6	Girona	17	6	4	7	-2	22
7	Alaves	18	6	3	9	-9	21
8	Sociedad	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Villarreal	17	5	5	7	-4	20
10	Sevilla	18	5	4	9	-4	19
11	Betis	17	5	3	9	-8	18
12	Ath Bilbao	17	4	6	7	-8	18
13	Valladolid	18	4	6	8	-10	18
14	Levante	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Eibar	18	2	8	8	-13	14
16	Espanol	17	2	7	8	-10	13
17	Leganes	17	3	4	10	-11	13
18	Celta	18	2	6	10	-13	12
19	Huesca	18	2	6	10	-15	12
20	Vallecano	17	3	1	13	-19	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.